Naftagas v Napredak prediction · Prva Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Naftagas 0–0 Napredak NAFTAGAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Naftagas win~~50%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.825

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.750

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Naftagas win at 50%.
1′KICK-OFF Naftagas v Napredak
2′Much as we predicted: Naftagas was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Naftagas
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Naftagas win: 50% at kick-off, 39% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Naftagas win: 50% at kick-off, 46% now
45′HALF-TIME Naftagas 0–0 Napredak
46′SECOND HALF Naftagas 0–0 Napredak
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Naftagas · On: N. Gavric · Off: S. Ilic
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Naftagas · On: M. Stevanovic · Off: M. Marsenic
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Naftagas · On: M. Stevanovic · Off: M. Marsenic
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Napredak
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Napredak
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Napredak · On: D. Miladinovic · Off: A. Milic
65′🟨 YELLOW · 61' L. Miladinovic · Napredak
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Naftagas · On: D. Pantelic · Off: U. Vukicevic
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Naftagas · On: M. Savanovic · Off: V. Siladji
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Napredak
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Naftagas
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Napredak · On: P. Gigic · Off: F. Stuparevic
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Naftagas · On: M. Kovacevic · Off: M. Ozegovic
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Napredak
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Napredak
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' P. Gigic · Napredak
FTFULL TIME Naftagas 0–0 Napredak
FTNaftagas 0–0 Napredak · Naftagas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Naftagas win50%

Draw28%

Napredak win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueGradski stadion

Line-ups

Naftagas

Napredak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Naftagas

Napredak

7Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Napredak	12	−2	17
12	Naftagas	12	+4	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Naftagas

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Peric

3 D. Bajic

4 B. Blagojevic

5 M. Ozegovic

8 U. Vukicevic

9 V. Siladji

15 I. Jelicic

17 M. Marsenic

23 V. Radosavljevic

27 S. Ilic

55 M. Stankovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · N. Galin

7 · M. Kovacevic

10 · S. Trajkovic

11 · M. Savanovic

16 · N. Gavric

19 · M. Goronjic

22 · G. Mendy

24 · M. Stevanovic

29 · M. Arsovic

49 · D. Pantelic

88 · N. Pantic

Napredak

Formation not confirmed

84 F. Novakovic

4 F. Krstic

9 F. Stuparevic

11 S. Milosevic

15 M. Mitrovic

20 N. Marinkovic

23 A. Milic

27 N. Bukumira

44 L. Miladinovic

77 N. Sreckovic

95 M. Zuvic

Coach · Sasa Micovic

Substitutes

19 · A. Dordevic

5 · D. Danicic

7 · P. Bogdanovic

17 · A. Vlaisavljevic

18 · N. Stevanovic

22 · A. Andrejevic

33 · V. Bogdanovic

55 · D. Miladinovic

70 · A. Novakovic

88 · P. Gigic

89 · L. Krstovic

Our number · naftagas winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

50% The market36%

Us50%

~~Market~~36%

We make Naftagas a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · naftagas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naftagas win	50%	36%	+14
Draw	28%	29%	−2
Napredak win	23%	34%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	47%	44%	+3
Both teams to score	50%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	68%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	25%	24%	+2
Naftagas or draw	77%	66%	+12
Naftagas clean sheet	38%	–	–
Napredak clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.4 6.6 3.8 1 11.2 12.9 5.7 2 9.6 9.1 4.4 3 5.1 4.8 2.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naftagas down, Napredak across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,582 Prva Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Naftagas at home: 1.60 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). Napredak away: 0.40 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Naftagas, 0.97 for Napredak. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Prva Liga

NAFTAGAS

DDDLWW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 6–0

NAPREDAK

WLLLDW2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borac Cacak	13	+7	28
2	TSC Backa Topola	12	+11	24
3	Semendrija 1924	12	+8	24
4	Javor	12	+15	23
5	OFK Vršac	12	+5	22
6	Metalac GM	13	+1	18
7	Napredak	12	−2	17
8	Dubočica	12	−2	16
9	FK Vozdovac	12	0	15
10	Loznica	12	−3	15
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	12	−5	15
12	Naftagas	12	+4	13
13	Teleoptik	13	−6	13
14	Grafičar	12	−7	10
15	Jedinstvo Ub	13	−12	8
16	OFK Bor 1919	12	−14	8