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Naftagas v FK Vozdovac

Naftagas

2–1Full time

FK Vozdovac

Prva Liga · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Naftagas 2–1 FK Vozdovac NAFTAGAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Naftagas win~~36%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.610

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.637

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Naftagas win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Naftagas was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–32–32
1′KICK-OFF Naftagas v FK Vozdovac
9′FK Vozdovac find the net on 9′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–21–65
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Naftagas 0–1 FK Vozdovac
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Naftagas win: 36% at kick-off, 14% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' FK Vozdovac win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Naftagas win 35%)
10′We said Naftagas at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–21–65
24′A goal for Naftagas on 23′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–36–30
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Naftagas 1–1 FK Vozdovac
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Naftagas win: 36% at kick-off, 33% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was FK Vozdovac win 66%)
32′Naftagas score on 32′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 71–20–9
32′We published Naftagas at 36%. Our model now makes it 71%. 2–1 · 71–20–9
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Naftagas 2–1 FK Vozdovac
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Naftagas win: 36% at kick-off, 71% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Naftagas win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 39%)
33′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 71–20–8
45′HALF-TIME Naftagas 2–1 FK Vozdovac
46′SECOND HALF Naftagas 2–1 FK Vozdovac
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Naftagas · On: M. Kovacevic · Off: V. Siladji
49′We published Naftagas at 36%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–20–6
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Naftagas win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Naftagas · On: L. Rochester · Off: K. Opoku Ackah
63′We published Naftagas at 36%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Naftagas
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FK Vozdovac · On: A. Madi · Off: S. Raskovic
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FK Vozdovac · On: J. Zimmerman · Off: Q. Tavares
73′We published Naftagas at 36%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Naftagas win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Naftagas
80′We published Naftagas at 36%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Naftagas · On: M. Arsovic · Off: M. Stankovic
80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Naftagas · On: N. Gavric · Off: M. Savanovic
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' FK Vozdovac · On: M. Adam · Off: J. Zimmerman
86′We published Naftagas at 36%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Naftagas · On: M. Goronjic · Off: S. Ilic
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Naftagas win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' FK Vozdovac
FTFULL TIME Naftagas 2–1 FK Vozdovac
FTNaftagas 2–1 FK Vozdovac · Naftagas win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Naftagas just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Naftagas 36%, draw 31%, FK Vozdovac 32%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Naftagas v FK VozdovacBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Naftagas win36%

Draw31%

FK Vozdovac win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naftagas

FK Vozdovac

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Prva Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	FK Vozdovac	14	+2	19
12	Naftagas	14	+4	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naftagas winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

36% The market35%

Us36%

~~Market~~35%

We make Naftagas a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naftagas v FK Vozdovac~~1.15 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 19~~12 v 8

~~The market · Naftagas win~~35% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Naftagas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naftagas win	36%	35%	+1
Draw	31%	28%	+3
FK Vozdovac win	32%	37%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	38%	46%	−8
Both teams to score	45%	52%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−7
Naftagas or draw	68%	63%	+5
Naftagas clean sheet	35%	–	–
FK Vozdovac clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.5 10.5 6.2 2.3 1 11.3 14.3 7.0 2.5 2 7.2 7.5 4.0 3 2.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naftagas down, FK Vozdovac across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Prva Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Naftagas at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FK Vozdovac away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Naftagas, 1.07 for FK Vozdovac. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept

NAFTAGAS

DLWWDD1–1 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 6–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

FK VOZDOVAC

WWDLWD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	TSC Backa Topola	15	+19	33
2	Borac Cacak	14	+7	29
3	Javor	14	+18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	15	+6	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	+4	25
6	Dubočica	15	−1	22
7	Napredak	14	−1	21
8	FK Vozdovac	14	+2	19
9	Loznica	14	−2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	−3	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	−6	16
12	Naftagas	14	+4	15
13	Teleoptik	15	−8	13
14	Grafičar	14	−9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	−10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	−20	8