Metalac GM v Javor prediction · Prva Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Metalac GM 1–2 Javor JAVOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Javor win~~45%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.455

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.267

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Javor win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Javor 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 27–29–45
1′KICK-OFF Metalac GM v Javor
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Metalac GM
9′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Metalac GM
35′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Metalac GM · On: P. Ntim · Off: Y. Koffi
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Javor
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Javor win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Metalac GM 0–0 Javor
46′SECOND HALF Metalac GM 0–0 Javor
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Javor win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Javor
51′We said Javor at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 22–45–33
53′Metalac GM score on 53′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 68–24–9
53′We said Javor at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–24–9
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Metalac GM 1–0 Javor
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Javor win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Metalac GM win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 46%)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Javor · On: N. Djokic · Off: L. Micic
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Javor · On: K. Saliman · Off: B. Acquah
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Javor win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
67′We said Javor at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Javor
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Javor · On: E. Ocansey · Off: A. Radonjic
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Javor · On: S. Mitrovic · Off: M. Bjekovic
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Metalac GM · On: J. Kalicanin · Off: L. Puzovic
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Javor · On: M. Nikolic · Off: B. Cande
84′Javor find the net on 83′. 1–1. 1–1 · 6–85–9
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Metalac GM 1–1 Javor
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Javor win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Metalac GM win 90%)
85′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 6–86–8
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Metalac GM
87′A goal for Javor on 87′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′We said Javor at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Metalac GM 1–2 Javor
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Javor win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Javor win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 89%)
FTFULL TIME Metalac GM 1–2 Javor
FTMetalac GM 1–2 Javor · Javor win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Javor are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Metalac GM 27%, draw 28%, Javor 45%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Metalac GM v JavorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Metalac GM win27%

Draw28%

Javor win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metalac GM

Javor

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Javor	14	+18	27
10	Metalac GM	14	−3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · javor winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market58%

Us45%

~~Market~~58%

We make Javor a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metalac GM v Javor~~1.06 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 18 v 27~~10 v 3

~~The market · Javor win~~58% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Javor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metalac GM win	27%	18%	+9
Draw	28%	24%	+4
Javor win	45%	58%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Metalac GM or draw	55%	42%	+13
Metalac GM clean sheet	24%	–	–
Javor clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.5 10.6 8.5 4.2 1 7.4 13.3 8.8 4.3 2 4.6 6.5 4.7 2.3 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metalac GM down, Javor across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Prva Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Metalac GM at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Javor away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Metalac GM, 1.46 for Javor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept

METALAC GM

WWWDLL2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–5

JAVOR

DWDWDW2–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	TSC Backa Topola	15	+19	33
2	Borac Cacak	14	+7	29
3	Javor	14	+18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	15	+6	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	+4	25
6	Dubočica	15	−1	22
7	Napredak	14	−1	21
8	FK Vozdovac	14	+2	19
9	Loznica	14	−2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	−3	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	−6	16
12	Naftagas	14	+4	15
13	Teleoptik	15	−8	13
14	Grafičar	14	−9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	−10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	−20	8