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Model 1.1

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Loznica v Semendrija 1924

Loznica
1–0Full time
Semendrija 1924

Prva Liga · MON 12 OCT · Lagator Stadium

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:31
Loznica 1–0 Semendrija 1924 LOZNICA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Loznica win39%
The market said33%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.556
The market’s Brier score0.675

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 38 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Loznica win at 39%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Loznica was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Loznica v Semendrija 1924
  4. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Loznica 1–0 Semendrija 1924
  5. 17′16′ and it is 1–0: Loznica have scored. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  6. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
  8. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
  9. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  10. 19′16′ and it is 1–0: Loznica have scored. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  11. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
  12. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  13. 21′17′ and it is 1–0: N. Krstic on the scoresheet for Loznica. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  14. 23′We published Loznica at 39%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  15. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Semendrija 1924
  16. 32′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 73–20–7
  17. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  18. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  19. 35′⚽ GOAL · 17' Loznica 1–0 Semendrija 1924 · N. Krstic
  20. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 30' I. Hadzic · Semendrija 1924
  21. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  22. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  23. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  24. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  25. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  26. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  27. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  28. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  29. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  30. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Loznica win: 39% at kick-off, 71% now
  31. 45′HALF-TIME Loznica 1–0 Semendrija 1924
  32. 46′SECOND HALF Loznica 1–0 Semendrija 1924
  33. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Loznica
  34. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Semendrija 1924 · On: A. Preradov · Off: A. Lutovac
  35. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Semendrija 1924 · On: L. Milunovic · Off: N. Kodzic
  36. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Loznica
  37. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Semendrija 1924 · On: A. Popov · Off: T. Joseph
  38. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Loznica · On: M. Zivkovic · Off: A. Katanic
  39. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Loznica · On: A. Hamadu · Off: D. Pantic
  40. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Loznica
  41. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Loznica · On: L. Malis · Off: M. Jelenic
  42. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Semendrija 1924
  43. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Semendrija 1924 · On: T. Grbovic · Off: S. Petkoski Cimbaljevic
  44. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Loznica
  45. FTFULL TIME Loznica 1–0 Semendrija 1924
  46. FTLoznica 1–0 Semendrija 1924 · Loznica win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:02 · locked at kick-off

Loznica win39%
Draw32%
Semendrija 1924 win29%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 17:00

VenueLagator Stadium

Line-ups

Loznica

Semendrija 1924

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Loznica

Semendrija 1924

7Days since last match7
2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Semendrija 192412+824
10Loznica12−315

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Loznica

Formation not confirmed

32 N. Lakic

2 M. Ilic

14 D. Pantic

15 A. Katanic

17 S. Trajkovski

20 L. Pecelj

22 S. Carapic

24 M. Jelenic

28 A. Vidic

42 N. Krstic

77 S. Purtic

Coach · Dejan Nikolic

Substitutes

1 · D. Pavlicic

4 · L. Vasic

6 · N. Ahcin

7 · L. Malis

8 · L. Nikolic

18 · A. Milicevic

19 · F. Matic

21 · M. Bakic

27 · M. Zivkovic

30 · M. Jezdimirovic

89 · A. Hamadu

Semendrija 1924

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Mirkovic

3 S. Petkoski Cimbaljevic

6 S. Mitrovic

7 V. Karajcic

9 I. Hadzic

10 S. Spiridonovic

11 N. Kodzic

15 L. Kolarevic

16 T. Joseph

26 L. Drobnjak

30 A. Lutovac

Coach · Nenad Mijailovic

Substitutes

12 · D. Knezevic

2 · N. Zaric

8 · N. Stojkovic

13 · A. Popov

17 · S. Lukovic

18 · A. Sawadogo

22 · B. Rmus

25 · J. Mitrovic

27 · A. Preradov

28 · T. Grbovic

40 · L. Milunovic

Our number · loznica winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off
39% The market33%
Us39%
Market33%

We make Loznica a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:2012 OCT 14:10
Our probability · loznica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Loznica win39%33%+6
Draw32%30%+1
Semendrija 1924 win29%37%−7
Over 2.5 goals38%47%−10
Both teams to score45%53%−8
Over 1.5 goals66%71%−5
Over 3.5 goals18%27%−9
Loznica or draw71%63%+7
Loznica clean sheet37%––
Semendrija 1924 clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%
0123450 12.6 9.8 5.6 1 11.9 14.4 6.6 2.2 2 7.9 7.8 3.9 3 3.2 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Loznica down, Semendrija 1924 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsLOZ 1–0 SEM · SEM 2–0 LOZ

Form · last six in Prva Liga

LOZNICA

DLDWWL1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–3

SEMENDRIJA 1924

LLWWWW1–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Borac Cacak13+728
2TSC Backa Topola13+1427
3Javor13+1524
4Semendrija 192412+824
5OFK Vršac13+322
6Dubočica13−119
7FK Vozdovac13+218
8Metalac GM13+118
9Napredak13−218
10Loznica12−315
11FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV13−615
12Naftagas13+414
13Teleoptik13−613
14Grafičar13−711
15Jedinstvo Ub13−128
16OFK Bor 191913−178

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.