Loznica v OFK Vršac prediction · Prva Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Loznica 1–1 OFK Vršac LOZNICA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Loznica win~~42%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.684

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.793

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Loznica win at 42%.
2′Much as we predicted: Loznica was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–34–24
2′KICK-OFF Loznica v OFK Vršac
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' OFK Vršac
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Loznica win 38%)
43′A goal for OFK Vršac on 43′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Loznica 0–1 OFK Vršac
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Loznica win: 42% at kick-off, 9% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' OFK Vršac win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 47%)
44′We said Loznica at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–24–68
44′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 8–24–68
45′HALF-TIME Loznica 0–1 OFK Vršac
46′SECOND HALF Loznica 0–1 OFK Vršac
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Loznica · On: A. Hamadu · Off: M. Ilic
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Loznica · On: M. Bakic · Off: L. Malis
60′We said Loznica at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Loznica
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Loznica · On: L. Nikolic · Off: L. Pecelj
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Loznica win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' OFK Vršac · On: D. Glavinic · Off: A. Pivas
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' OFK Vršac · On: E. Atem · Off: S. Wasiu
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' OFK Vršac · On: S. Basic · Off: U. Cejic
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' OFK Vršac · On: M. Milivojevic · Off: N. Gojkov
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' OFK Vršac · On: V. Bala · Off: S. Radojicic
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' OFK Vršac
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' OFK Vršac
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Loznica · On: M. Jezdimirovic · Off: P. Cirkovic
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' OFK Vršac
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' OFK Vršac
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Loznica · On: A. Milicevic · Off: S. Carapic
90′Loznica score on 90′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 4–94–3
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Loznica 1–1 OFK Vršac
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was OFK Vršac win 96%)
FTFULL TIME Loznica 1–1 OFK Vršac
FTLoznica 1–1 OFK Vršac · Loznica win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Loznica are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Loznica 42%, draw 33%, OFK Vršac 24%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Loznica v OFK VršacBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Loznica win42%

Draw33%

OFK Vršac win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Loznica

OFK Vršac

6Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Prva Liga

Last match: 16 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	OFK Vršac	14	+4	25
9	Loznica	14	−2	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · loznica winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market45%

Us42%

~~Market~~45%

We make Loznica a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Loznica v OFK Vršac~~1.14 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 25~~9 v 5

~~The market · Loznica win~~45% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Loznica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Loznica win	42%	45%	−3
Draw	33%	28%	+5
OFK Vršac win	24%	27%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	31%	44%	−13
Both teams to score	38%	49%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	59%	68%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	13%	24%	−11
Loznica or draw	76%	73%	+3
Loznica clean sheet	45%	–	–
OFK Vršac clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.0%

0123450 16.0 10.3 4.6 1 15.2 14.1 5.1 2 9.3 7.3 2.9 3 3.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Loznica down, OFK Vršac across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Prva Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Loznica at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). OFK Vršac away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Loznica, 0.80 for OFK Vršac. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~OFK 0–0 LOZ · LOZ 2–0 OFK · OFK 1–0 LOZ · LOZ 2–1 OFK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept

LOZNICA

DWWLWD2–2 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

OFK VRŠAC

WWLDLW2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	TSC Backa Topola	15	+19	33
2	Borac Cacak	14	+7	29
3	Javor	14	+18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	15	+6	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	+4	25
6	Dubočica	15	−1	22
7	Napredak	14	−1	21
8	FK Vozdovac	14	+2	19
9	Loznica	14	−2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	−3	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	−6	16
12	Naftagas	14	+4	15
13	Teleoptik	15	−8	13
14	Grafičar	14	−9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	−10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	−20	8