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Jedinstvo Ub v Grafičar

Jedinstvo Ub
3–1Full time
Grafičar

Prva Liga · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
Jedinstvo Ub 3–1 Grafičar JEDINSTVO UB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Jedinstvo Ub win42%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.509
The market’s Brier score0.621

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Jedinstvo Ub win at 42%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Jedinstvo Ub was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Jedinstvo Ub v Grafičar
  4. 15′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Grafičar · On: L. Nikolic · Off: D. Anokic
  5. 15′SUBSTITUTION · 14' Jedinstvo Ub · On: N. Paunovic · Off: M. Terzic
  6. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Jedinstvo Ub
  7. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Grafičar
  8. 40′Jedinstvo Ub find the net on 39′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–9
  9. 40′We published Jedinstvo Ub at 42%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–9
  10. 40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Jedinstvo Ub 1–0 Grafičar
  11. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Jedinstvo Ub win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
  12. 41′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
  13. 41′Jedinstvo Ub ahead on 40′ through N. Paunovic. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Jedinstvo Ub 1–0 Grafičar
  15. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Jedinstvo Ub
  16. 47′PENALTY MISSED · 45+2' Grafičar
  17. 47′SECOND HALF Jedinstvo Ub 1–0 Grafičar
  18. 54′We published Jedinstvo Ub at 42%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
  19. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Grafičar · On: L. Bijelovic · Off: M. Zivanovic
  20. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Grafičar · On: B. Papovic · Off: I. Lakicevic
  21. 67′A goal for Grafičar on 67′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 25–55–20
  22. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Jedinstvo Ub 1–1 Grafičar
  23. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Jedinstvo Ub win: 42% at kick-off, 25% now
  24. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Jedinstvo Ub win 25%)
  25. 68′We said Jedinstvo Ub at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–20
  26. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Jedinstvo Ub · On: M. Simic · Off: D. Lisanin
  27. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Jedinstvo Ub win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  28. 75′We said Jedinstvo Ub at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–16
  29. 80′We said Jedinstvo Ub at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–12
  30. 81′Jedinstvo Ub score on 81′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
  31. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Jedinstvo Ub 2–1 Grafičar
  32. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Jedinstvo Ub win: 42% at kick-off, 89% now
  33. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Jedinstvo Ub win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
  34. 82′We published Jedinstvo Ub at 42%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  35. 82′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Grafičar · On: V. Subotic · Off: J. Tucker
  37. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Jedinstvo Ub win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  38. 86′Jedinstvo Ub find the net on 85′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  39. 86′We published Jedinstvo Ub at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  40. 86′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Jedinstvo Ub 3–1 Grafičar
  42. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Jedinstvo Ub · On: S. Fall · Off: N. Paunovic
  43. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Jedinstvo Ub · On: A. Zivojinovic · Off: E. Okain
  44. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Jedinstvo Ub
  45. FTFULL TIME Jedinstvo Ub 3–1 Grafičar
  46. FTJedinstvo Ub 3–1 Grafičar · Jedinstvo Ub win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jedinstvo Ub are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jedinstvo Ub 42%, draw 27%, Grafičar 31%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Jedinstvo Ub v GrafičarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Jedinstvo Ub win42%
Draw27%
Grafičar win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 14

Line-ups

Jedinstvo Ub

Grafičar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jedinstvo Ub

Grafičar

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Prva Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Grafičar13−711
15Jedinstvo Ub13−128

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Jedinstvo Ub

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Jovanovic

4 D. Nesic

5 L. Djurdjevic

6 D. Bilbija

7 M. Vranjes

11 D. Lisanin

17 E. Okain

23 N. Jokic

36 M. Terzic

39 M. Miljkovic

55 V. Veskovic

Coach · Uros Matic

Substitutes

81 · F. Novkovic

3 · D. Todoric

9 · N. Paunovic

14 · M. Kesikj

20 · A. Zivojinovic

22 · N. Grujic

26 · D. Acimovic

40 · I. Kpare

49 · M. Budjevac

54 · M. Simic

77 · S. Fall

Grafičar

Formation not confirmed

92 V. Vojvodic

4 S. Hajdin

5 P. Golubovic

9 N. Furtula

13 F. Vasiljevic

15 D. Lazic

23 U. Djordjevic

33 I. Lakicevic

77 D. Anokic

78 J. Tucker

80 M. Zivanovic

Coach · Milan Stegnjaic

Substitutes

22 · N. Curuvija

3 · B. Maric

6 · V. Subotic

7 · L. Bijelovic

8 · L. Nikolic

19 · B. Papovic

27 · V. Roganovic

44 · M. Popovic

Our number · jedinstvo ub winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market36%
Us42%
Market36%

We make Jedinstvo Ub a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Jedinstvo Ub v Grafičar1.56 – 1.32
Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 12 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 8 v 1115 v 14
The market · Jedinstvo Ub win36% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 16:05
Our probability · Jedinstvo Ub win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Jedinstvo Ub win42%36%+6
Draw27%29%−2
Grafičar win31%36%−5
Over 2.5 goals54%46%+8
Both teams to score58%52%+6
Over 1.5 goals79%70%+9
Over 3.5 goals32%26%+6
Jedinstvo Ub or draw69%64%+5
Jedinstvo Ub clean sheet27%––
Grafičar clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 7.0 6.5 4.9 2.2 1 7.8 12.5 7.5 3.3 2 6.8 8.8 5.8 2.6 3 3.5 4.6 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Jedinstvo Ub down, Grafičar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.25
Over 2.55 of 8
Both scored4 of 8
Last meetingsGRA 4–0 JED · JED 2–0 GRA · GRA 2–4 JED · JED 3–1 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 12 Sept

JEDINSTVO UB

WLLLDL2–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–3

GRAFIČAR

LWLWLD1–4 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Borac Cacak13+728
2TSC Backa Topola13+1427
3OFK Vršac14+425
4Javor13+1524
5Semendrija 192413+724
6Dubočica13−119
7FK Vozdovac13+218
8Metalac GM13+118
9Loznica13−218
10Napredak13−218
11FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV13−615
12Naftagas13+414
13Teleoptik14−713
14Grafičar13−711
15Jedinstvo Ub13−128
16OFK Bor 191913−178

The competition's standings before kick-off.