Grafičar v Javor prediction · Prva Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Grafičar 1–1 Javor JAVOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Javor win~~45%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.814

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.858

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Javor win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Javor 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 29–25–46
2′Little has changed for our model: Javor 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 29–25–46
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Grafičar 1–0 Javor
23′N. Todosijevic scores for Grafičar on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 58–24–18
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Javor win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Grafičar win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Javor win 18%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Javor win: 45% at kick-off, 46% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Javor win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Grafičar win 29%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Javor
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Javor
45′We said Javor at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 63–25–12
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Javor win: 45% at kick-off, 12% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Javor win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
45′HALF-TIME Grafičar 1–0 Javor
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Grafičar win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Javor win 12%)
46′SECOND HALF Grafičar 1–0 Javor
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Javor · On: B. Acquah · Off: K. Saliman
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Javor · On: L. Micic · Off: N. Djokic
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Grafičar
56′PENALTY MISSED · 56' Javor
59′PENALTY MISSED · 56' Javor
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Javor
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Grafičar · On: V. Subotic · Off: U. Djordjevic
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Javor · On: E. Ocansey · Off: M. Mirosavljev
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Javor · On: M. Nikolic · Off: A. Radonjic
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Grafičar · On: P. Obasi · Off: J. Tucker
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Grafičar 1–1 Javor
FTFULL TIME Grafičar 1–1 Javor
FTGrafičar 1–1 Javor · Javor win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Grafičar win28%

Draw27%

Javor win45%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueStadion Rajko Mit

Line-ups

Grafičar

Javor

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Grafičar

Javor

6Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Javor	12	+15	23
14	Grafičar	12	−7	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Grafičar

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Radanovic

5 P. Golubovic

8 L. Nikolic

9 N. Furtula

12 M. Strika

13 F. Vasiljevic

15 D. Lazic

23 U. Djordjevic

33 I. Lakicevic

60 D. Saric

78 J. Tucker

Coach · Milan Stegnjaic

Substitutes

92 · V. Vojvodic

6 · V. Subotic

19 · B. Papovic

27 · V. Roganovic

44 · M. Popovic

80 · M. Zivanovic

99 · P. Obasi

Javor

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Stevanovic

2 B. Cande

3 S. Vilotic

4 N. Todosijevic

5 N. Djokic

7 A. Radonjic

10 M. Maricic

13 M. Bjekovic

14 K. Saliman

26 M. Mirosavljev

30 M. Kolakovic

Coach · Branko Mirjacic

Substitutes

12 · O. Lukic

8 · N. Ferro

9 · M. Nikolic

11 · L. Micic

15 · D. Ristic

17 · B. Acquah

18 · M. Nenadovic

21 · Z. Basaric

22 · S. Mitrovic

28 · E. Ocansey

31 · L. Konstantinov

Our number · javor winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

45% The market51%

Us45%

~~Market~~51%

We make Javor a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · javor win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grafičar win	28%	23%	+5
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Javor win	45%	51%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Both teams to score	56%	53%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	73%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
Grafičar or draw	55%	49%	+6
Grafičar clean sheet	21%	–	–
Javor clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.6 8.7 7.7 4.1 1 6.5 12.7 9.0 4.8 2 4.6 7.0 5.4 2.9 3 2.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grafičar down, Javor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,582 Prva Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grafičar at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Javor away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Grafičar, 1.58 for Javor. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~JAV 3–0 GRA · GRA 1–1 JAV · JAV 3–1 GRA · JAV 0–0 GRA

Form · last six in Prva Liga

GRAFIČAR

LLWLWL1–2 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–4

JAVOR

WDDWDW3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borac Cacak	13	+7	28
2	TSC Backa Topola	12	+11	24
3	Semendrija 1924	12	+8	24
4	Javor	12	+15	23
5	OFK Vršac	12	+5	22
6	Metalac GM	13	+1	18
7	Napredak	12	−2	17
8	Dubočica	12	−2	16
9	FK Vozdovac	12	0	15
10	Loznica	12	−3	15
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	12	−5	15
12	Naftagas	12	+4	13
13	Teleoptik	13	−6	13
14	Grafičar	12	−7	10
15	Jedinstvo Ub	13	−12	8
16	OFK Bor 1919	12	−14	8