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Grafičar v FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Grafičar

0–2Full time

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Prva Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Stadion Rajko Mit

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Grafičar 0–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV GRAFIČAR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Grafičar win~~52%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.894

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.570

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Grafičar win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Grafičar 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Grafičar v FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
31′We said Grafičar at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–25–54
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 21–25–54
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Grafičar 0–1 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Grafičar win: 52% at kick-off, 21% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Grafičar win 46%)
32′FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV find the net on 31′. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–25–54
36′We said Grafičar at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–55
38′FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead on 32′ through Enzo. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–56
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
40′We said Grafičar at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–12–82
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Grafičar 0–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Grafičar win: 52% at kick-off, 6% now
41′A goal for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV on 40′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 5–12–82
45′A. Petrovic scores for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV on 41′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–84
45′SECOND HALF Grafičar 0–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
46′We said Grafičar at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–84
46′HALF-TIME Grafičar 0–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Grafičar · On: I. Lakicevic · Off: P. Golubovic
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Grafičar win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Grafičar · On: M. Zivanovic · Off: P. Obasi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Grafičar · On: V. Subotic · Off: U. Djordjevic
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Grafičar
81′🟥 RED CARD · 81' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Grafičar · On: J. Tucker · Off: D. Anokic
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · On: J. Mulato · Off: Enzo
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · On: S. Vasilic · Off: N. Bastajic
94′0–2 at the end. Our 52% on Grafičar misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Grafičar 0–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FTGrafičar 0–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · Grafičar win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grafičar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grafičar 52%, draw 24%, FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 24%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Grafičar v FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Grafičar win52%

Draw24%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueStadion Rajko Mit

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grafičar

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Prva Liga

Last match: 19 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	−6	16
14	Grafičar	14	−9	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grafičar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:13 · locked at kick-off

52% The market35%

Us52%

~~Market~~35%

We make Grafičar a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grafičar v FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV~~1.92 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 16~~14 v 11

~~The market · Grafičar win~~35% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Grafičar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grafičar win	52%	35%	+17
Draw	24%	27%	−3
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win	24%	38%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	61%	55%	+6
Both teams to score	62%	59%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	76%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	40%	34%	+6
Grafičar or draw	76%	62%	+14
Grafičar clean sheet	29%	–	–
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.3 4.4 3.4 1 7.1 10.9 6.3 2.7 2 7.6 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 4.8 6.0 3.8 4 2.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grafičar down, FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Prva Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grafičar at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Grafičar, 1.27 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GRA 2–0 FKS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept

GRAFIČAR

WLWLDL3–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–3

FK SPARTAK ZDREPCEVA KRV

LLLLLD1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 1–2 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	TSC Backa Topola	15	+19	33
2	Borac Cacak	14	+7	29
3	Javor	14	+18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	15	+6	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	+4	25
6	Dubočica	15	−1	22
7	Napredak	14	−1	21
8	FK Vozdovac	14	+2	19
9	Loznica	14	−2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	−3	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	−6	16
12	Naftagas	14	+4	15
13	Teleoptik	15	−8	13
14	Grafičar	14	−9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	−10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	−20	8