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FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV v Borac Cacak

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

3–3Full time

Borac Cacak

Prva Liga · MON 19 OCT · Gradski stadion

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3–3 Borac Cacak FK SPARTAK ZDREPCEVA KRV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win~~37%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.802

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.800

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
1′KICK-OFF FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV v Borac Cacak
16′We said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–20–64
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0–1 Borac Cacak
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win: 37% at kick-off, 16% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Borac Cacak win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win 36%)
17′Borac Cacak find the net on 17′. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–20–64
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Borac Cacak
24′We said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–21–65
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 13–21–66
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Borac Cacak
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
44′We said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0–2 Borac Cacak
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win: 37% at kick-off, 2% now
45′A goal for Borac Cacak on 44′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
45′SECOND HALF FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0–2 Borac Cacak
46′HALF-TIME FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 0–2 Borac Cacak
56′We said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–21–72
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1–2 Borac Cacak
57′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 7–21–72
57′FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score on 57′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–21–72
61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Borac Cacak
62′FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV have ten men and Borac Cacak ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 5–20–74
62′🟥 RED CARD · 62' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
67′We said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 2–2 · 23–55–22
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2–2 Borac Cacak
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win: 37% at kick-off, 23% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Borac Cacak win 77%)
68′FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV find the net on 68′. 2–2. 2–2 · 22–56–22
68′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 22–56–22
72′We said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 3–2 · 81–17–3
72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Borac Cacak · On: M. Mijic · Off: S. Djuric
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3–2 Borac Cacak
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win: 37% at kick-off, 81% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 61%)
73′A goal for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV on 73′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 81–16–2
73′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 81–16–2
77′We said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–14–2
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Borac Cacak · On: O. Alempijevic · Off: M. Spasojevic
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
83′We said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 3–2 · 91–9–1
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · On: P. Branco · Off: Enzo
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · On: S. Stojanovic · Off: N. Bastajic
89′We said FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Borac Cacak · On: U. Kilibarda · Off: M. Jevtovic
92′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 3–94–3
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3–3 Borac Cacak
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win: 37% at kick-off, 3% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win 97%)
93′Borac Cacak score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 2–95–2
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Borac Cacak
98′3–3 at the end. Our 37% on FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV misses, and the record keeps it. 3–3 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3–3 Borac Cacak
FTFK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3–3 Borac Cacak · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 37%, draw 27%, Borac Cacak 36%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV v Borac CacakBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win37%

Draw27%

Borac Cacak win36%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 14

VenueGradski stadion

Line-ups

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Borac Cacak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Borac Cacak

8Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Prva Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · Prva Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Borac Cacak	13	+7	28
12	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	13	−6	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Minic

6 Ebuka

10 A. Trajkovic

11 N. Bastajic

14 N. Karaklajic

22 A. Petrovic

30 L. Peic

33 N. Kuveljic

44 N. Motika

55 V. Kovacevic

77 Enzo

Coach · Savo Pavicevic

Substitutes

12 · M. Dulic

7 · N. Covic

9 · J. Mulato

20 · N. Miranovic

23 · A. Kovacevic

24 · S. Vasilic

27 · S. Stojanovic

43 · P. Branco

71 · T. Campos

Borac Cacak

Formation not confirmed

91 N. Petric

3 M. Kolarevic

4 A. Desancic

6 I. Yusuf

8 L. Majstorovic

10 M. Jevtovic

11 S. Djuric

15 N. Nikic

19 P. Popadic

20 M. Spasojevic

29 M. Vidovic

Coach · Nemanja Krtolica

Substitutes

75 · J. Barac

2 · L. Jankovic

5 · V. Zivadinovic

7 · B. Tomic

9 · U. Kilibarda

12 · Leandro Pinto

17 · V. Derkovic

21 · V. Ilic

22 · O. Alempijevic

24 · I. Dembele

30 · M. Mijic

Our number · fk spartak zdrepceva krv winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

37% The market38%

Us37%

~~Market~~38%

We make FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV v Borac Cacak~~1.47 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 28~~12 v 2

~~The market · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win~~38% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win	37%	38%	−1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Borac Cacak win	36%	35%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	51%	+4
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	73%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	33%	30%	+3
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV or draw	64%	65%	−1
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV clean sheet	24%	–	–
Borac Cacak clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 6.9 6.9 5.7 2.7 1 7.1 12.5 8.1 3.9 2 5.9 8.3 5.9 2.8 3 2.9 4.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV down, Borac Cacak across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 Prva Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 111 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Borac Cacak away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.43 for Borac Cacak. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 11 Sept

FK SPARTAK ZDREPCEVA KRV

WLLLLL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–6 · 1–2

BORAC CACAK

WLWDLW1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	TSC Backa Topola	14	+18	30
2	Borac Cacak	13	+7	28
3	Javor	14	+18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	14	+7	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	+4	25
6	Napredak	14	−1	21
7	FK Vozdovac	14	+2	19
8	Loznica	14	−2	19
9	Dubočica	14	−2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	−3	18
11	Naftagas	14	+4	15
12	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	13	−6	15
13	Teleoptik	14	−7	13
14	Grafičar	14	−9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	−10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	−20	8