Dubočica v Semendrija 1924 prediction · Prva Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:02

Dubočica 1–0 Semendrija 1924 SEMENDRIJA 1924 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Semendrija 1924 win~~38%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.695

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.661

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Semendrija 1924 win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Semendrija 1924 was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 32–30–38
1′KICK-OFF Dubočica v Semendrija 1924
19′Dubočica score on 18′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 64–22–14
19′We said Semendrija 1924 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Dubočica 1–0 Semendrija 1924
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Semendrija 1924 win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Dubočica win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Semendrija 1924 win 36%)
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Semendrija 1924
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Dubočica
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Dubočica
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Semendrija 1924
40′We said Semendrija 1924 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Semendrija 1924 win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Dubočica 1–0 Semendrija 1924
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Semendrija 1924 · On: L. Milunovic · Off: B. Rmus
46′SECOND HALF Dubočica 1–0 Semendrija 1924
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Semendrija 1924 · On: V. Karajcic · Off: T. Joseph
62′We said Semendrija 1924 at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Semendrija 1924 · On: A. Lutovac · Off: N. Kodzic
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dubočica · On: M. Miraljemovic · Off: M. Ljubenovic
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Dubočica
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dubočica · On: M. Andjelkovic · Off: M. Fara
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Dubočica · On: M. Petrovic · Off: P. Bezarevic
92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Semendrija 1924 · On: A. Popov · Off: A. Preradov
FTFULL TIME Dubočica 1–0 Semendrija 1924
FTDubočica 1–0 Semendrija 1924 · Semendrija 1924 win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Semendrija 1924 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dubočica 32%, draw 30%, Semendrija 1924 38%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Dubočica v Semendrija 1924Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dubočica win32%

Draw30%

Semendrija 1924 win38%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dubočica

Semendrija 1924

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Semendrija 1924	14	+7	25
9	Dubočica	14	−2	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · semendrija 1924 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market37%

Us38%

~~Market~~37%

We make Semendrija 1924 a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dubočica v Semendrija 1924~~1.13 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 25~~9 v 4

~~The market · Semendrija 1924 win~~37% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Semendrija 1924 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dubočica win	32%	34%	−2
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Semendrija 1924 win	38%	37%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	42%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
Dubočica or draw	62%	63%	−1
Dubočica clean sheet	29%	–	–
Semendrija 1924 clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 10.7 10.3 7.2 3.0 1 9.2 14.1 8.0 3.4 2 5.9 7.3 4.5 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dubočica down, Semendrija 1924 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 Prva Liga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.5% of games this season, across 112 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dubočica at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Semendrija 1924 away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Dubočica, 1.25 for Semendrija 1924. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DUB 1–2 SEM · SEM 4–0 DUB · DUB 2–0 SEM · DUB 2–1 SEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept

DUBOČICA

WDDDWL2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

SEMENDRIJA 1924

WWWWLD2–1 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	TSC Backa Topola	14	+18	30
2	Borac Cacak	14	+7	29
3	Javor	14	+18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	14	+7	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	+4	25
6	Napredak	14	−1	21
7	FK Vozdovac	14	+2	19
8	Loznica	14	−2	19
9	Dubočica	14	−2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	−3	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	−6	16
12	Naftagas	14	+4	15
13	Teleoptik	14	−7	13
14	Grafičar	14	−9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	−10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	−20	8