Dubočica v FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV prediction · Prva Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Dubočica 2–1 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV DUBOČICA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dubočica win~~43%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.493

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.617

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dubočica win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dubočica was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
2′Much as we predicted: Dubočica was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
22′Dubočica ahead on 14′ through L. Stojanovic. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–11
42′We published Dubočica at 43%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
45′We published Dubočica at 43%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
69′A. Petrovic scores for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV on 65′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–57–19
86′79′ and it is 2–1: N. Ela on the scoresheet for Dubočica. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Dubočica win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Dubočica win: 43% at kick-off, 24% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Dubočica win 24%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Dubočica win: 43% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Dubočica 2–1 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
FTDubočica 2–1 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · Dubočica win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Dubočica win43%

Draw27%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Line-ups

Dubočica

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dubočica

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Dubočica	12	−2	16
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	12	−5	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dubočica

Formation not confirmed

32 A. Milojevic

3 F. Klaric

4 S. Santos

5 M. Stojanovic

6 L. P. Sidibe M.

7 P. Djurickovic

9 D. Ivic

22 L. Stojanovic

30 M. Zlatkovic

33 M. Fara

50 M. Ljubenovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Mladenovic

8 · M. Miraljemovic

11 · D. Zivkovic

14 · M. Petrovic

20 · M. Andjelkovic

21 · M. Novakovic

25 · B. Balaz

41 · N. Ela

45 · T. Topalovic

73 · N. Tasic

91 · P. Bezarevic

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Minic

3 V. Vitorovic

4 M. Kosanovic

10 A. Trajkovic

11 N. Bastajic

22 A. Petrovic

24 S. Vasilic

30 L. Peic

44 N. Motika

55 V. Kovacevic

77 Enzo

Coach · Savo Pavicevic

Substitutes

12 · M. Dulic

6 · Ebuka

7 · N. Covic

20 · N. Miranovic

36 · V. Desnica

71 · T. Campos

Our number · dubočica winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

43% The market36%

Us43%

~~Market~~36%

We make Dubočica a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dubočica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dubočica win	43%	36%	+7
Draw	27%	27%	−1
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win	31%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	54%	50%	+5
Both teams to score	58%	55%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	73%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	32%	29%	+4
Dubočica or draw	69%	64%	+6
Dubočica clean sheet	28%	–	–
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.0 6.4 4.8 2.1 1 7.9 12.5 7.3 3.2 2 7.0 8.9 5.7 2.5 3 3.7 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dubočica down, FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,582 Prva Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.1% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Dubočica at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away: 1.60 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Dubočica, 1.30 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Prva Liga

DUBOČICA

LLWDDD1–2 · 0–5 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

FK SPARTAK ZDREPCEVA KRV

WWLLLL2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Borac Cacak	13	+7	28
2	TSC Backa Topola	12	+11	24
3	Semendrija 1924	12	+8	24
4	Javor	12	+15	23
5	OFK Vršac	12	+5	22
6	Metalac GM	13	+1	18
7	Napredak	12	−2	17
8	Dubočica	12	−2	16
9	FK Vozdovac	12	0	15
10	Loznica	12	−3	15
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	12	−5	15
12	Naftagas	12	+4	13
13	Teleoptik	13	−6	13
14	Grafičar	12	−7	10
15	Jedinstvo Ub	13	−12	8
16	OFK Bor 1919	12	−14	8