Borac Cacak v Napredak prediction · Prva Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Borac Cacak 0–0 Napredak BORAC CACAK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Borac Cacak win~~49%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.803

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.762

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Borac Cacak win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Borac Cacak 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–29–23
1′KICK-OFF Borac Cacak v Napredak
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Borac Cacak win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Napredak
45′HALF-TIME Borac Cacak 0–0 Napredak
46′SECOND HALF Borac Cacak 0–0 Napredak
47′We said Borac Cacak at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–43–20
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Borac Cacak win 40%)
53′We said Borac Cacak at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 33–48–19
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Napredak
62′We said Borac Cacak at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Borac Cacak win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Napredak · On: N. Stevanovic · Off: D. Miladinovic
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Napredak · On: A. Novakovic · Off: M. Zuvic
69′We said Borac Cacak at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–14
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Borac Cacak · On: V. Ilic · Off: M. Mijic
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Borac Cacak · On: U. Kilibarda · Off: M. Spasojevic
75′We said Borac Cacak at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–11
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Borac Cacak win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Napredak · On: A. Milic · Off: N. Bukumira
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Napredak · On: P. Gigic · Off: F. Stuparevic
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Borac Cacak
80′We said Borac Cacak at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–8
84′We said Borac Cacak at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Borac Cacak win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Borac Cacak
87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Napredak · On: L. Krstovic · Off: S. Milosevic
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Napredak
91′We said Borac Cacak at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
FTFULL TIME Borac Cacak 0–0 Napredak
FTBorac Cacak 0–0 Napredak · Borac Cacak win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Borac Cacak are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Borac Cacak 49%, draw 28%, Napredak 23%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Borac Cacak v NapredakBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Borac Cacak win49%

Draw28%

Napredak win23%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueGradski stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Borac Cacak

Napredak

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Prva Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Prva Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Borac Cacak	14	+7	29
7	Napredak	14	−1	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · borac cacak winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market44%

Us49%

~~Market~~44%

We make Borac Cacak a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Borac Cacak v Napredak~~1.49 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 29 v 21~~2 v 7

~~The market · Borac Cacak win~~44% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Borac Cacak win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Borac Cacak win	49%	44%	+5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Napredak win	23%	27%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	41%	+2
Both teams to score	48%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	22%	+1
Borac Cacak or draw	77%	73%	+4
Borac Cacak clean sheet	40%	–	–
Napredak clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.3 7.2 3.9 1 12.1 13.2 5.6 2 9.8 8.9 4.2 3 4.9 4.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Borac Cacak down, Napredak across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Prva Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Prva Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.4% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Borac Cacak at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Napredak away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Borac Cacak, 0.93 for Napredak. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Prva Liga this season · since 16 Sept

BORAC CACAK

LWDLWD1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–3

NAPREDAK

LLDWDW1–2 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	TSC Backa Topola	15	+19	33
2	Borac Cacak	14	+7	29
3	Javor	14	+18	27
4	Semendrija 1924	15	+6	25
5	OFK Vršac	14	+4	25
6	Dubočica	15	−1	22
7	Napredak	14	−1	21
8	FK Vozdovac	14	+2	19
9	Loznica	14	−2	19
10	Metalac GM	14	−3	18
11	FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV	14	−6	16
12	Naftagas	14	+4	15
13	Teleoptik	15	−8	13
14	Grafičar	14	−9	11
15	Jedinstvo Ub	14	−10	11
16	OFK Bor 1919	14	−20	8