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Model 1.2

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Wally Daan v Stade de Mbour

Wally Daan
0–0Full time
Stade de Mbour

Ligue 1 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:34
Wally Daan 0–0 Stade de Mbour DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said a draw41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.534

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 41%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 37–41–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Wally Daan v Stade de Mbour
  4. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 51% now
  5. 41′We published the draw at 41%. Our model now makes it 53%. 0–0 · 29–53–18
  6. 45′We published the draw at 41%. Our model now makes it 55%. 0–0 · 27–55–18
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Wally Daan 0–0 Stade de Mbour
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Wally Daan 0–0 Stade de Mbour
  9. 53′We published the draw at 41%. Our model now makes it 60%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
  10. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 61% now
  11. 60′We published the draw at 41%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–0 · 21–65–14
  12. 66′We published the draw at 41%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–0 · 18–70–12
  13. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  14. 71′We published the draw at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–0 · 15–75–10
  15. 76′We published the draw at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–0 · 12–80–8
  16. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  17. 80′We published the draw at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
  18. 85′We published the draw at 41%. Our model now makes it 91%. 0–0 · 5–91–4
  19. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
  20. 90′We published the draw at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–0 · 3–95–2
  21. FTFULL TIME Wally Daan 0–0 Stade de Mbour
  22. FTWally Daan 0–0 Stade de Mbour · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Wally Daan 37%, draw 41%, Stade de Mbour 22%. Over 2.5 goals 20%, both teams to score 29%.

The AI’s read on Wally Daan v Stade de MbourBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wally Daan win37%
Draw41%
Stade de Mbour win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wally Daan

Stade de Mbour

135Days since last match135

Last match: 4 June · Ligue 1 (Senegal)

Last match: 4 June · Ligue 1 (Senegal)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Stade de Mbour000
15Wally Daan000

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
41% The market–
Us41%

We make the draw a 41% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.6, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 25%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Wally Daan v Stade de Mbour0.90 – 0.62
Table places · points 0 v 015 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wally Daan win37%––
Draw41%––
Stade de Mbour win22%––
Over 2.5 goals20%––
Both teams to score29%––
Over 1.5 goals47%––
Over 3.5 goals7%––
Wally Daan or draw78%––
Wally Daan clean sheet54%––
Stade de Mbour clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 24.9%
0123450 24.9 11.1 4.3 1 17.0 14.3 3.7 2 8.7 5.3 3 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wally Daan down, Stade de Mbour across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsSTA 1–1 WAL · WAL 1–0 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season

WALLY DAAN

No matches in our record yet.

STADE DE MBOUR

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1La Linguère000
2Jaraaf000
3Ouakam000
4Casa Sport000
5Stade de Mbour000
6Gorée000
7Diambars000
8HLM000
9Génération Foot000
10Pikine000
11Guédiawaye000
12DSC000
13Teungueth000
14AJEL000
15Wally Daan000
16Essamaye000

The competition's standings before kick-off.