Ouakam v Jaraaf prediction · Ligue 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OuakamDrawJaraaf

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Ouakam 29%, draw 44%, Jaraaf 28%. Over 2.5 goals 16%, both teams to score 27%.

The AI’s read on Ouakam v JaraafBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Ouakam win29%

Draw44%

Jaraaf win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ouakam

Jaraaf

143Days since last match8

Last match: 4 June · Ligue 1 (Senegal)

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 1 (Senegal)

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Jaraaf	1	0	1
11	Ouakam	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make the draw a 44% chance. The model expects 0.7–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 28%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ouakam v Jaraaf~~0.70 – 0.68

~~Table places · points 0 v 1~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ouakam win	29%	–	–
Draw	44%	–	–
Jaraaf win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	16%	–	–
Both teams to score	27%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	43%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	5%	–	–
Ouakam or draw	72%	–	–
Ouakam clean sheet	51%	–	–
Jaraaf clean sheet	50%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 28.0%

0123450 28.0 14.5 5.8 1 15.0 14.1 4.0 2 6.2 4.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ouakam down, Jaraaf across0–5 goals a side shown (100.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,035 Ligue 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 23.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.17 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ouakam at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Jaraaf away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.70 goals for Ouakam, 0.68 for Jaraaf. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.17

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~JAR 0–0 OUA · OUA 1–0 JAR · OUA 1–1 JAR · JAR 1–0 OUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 17 Oct

OUAKAM

No matches in our record yet.

JARAAF

D1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Génération Foot	1	+3	3
2	Gorée	1	+2	3
3	Guédiawaye	1	+1	3
4	Diambars	1	+1	3
5	Casa Sport	1	0	1
6	HLM	1	0	1
7	Jaraaf	1	0	1
8	AJEL	1	0	1
9	Stade de Mbour	1	0	1
10	Wally Daan	1	0	1
11	Ouakam	0	0	0
12	Teungueth	0	0	0
13	DSC	1	−1	0
14	Essamaye	1	−1	0
15	La Linguère	1	−2	0
16	Pikine	1	−3	0