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Model 1.2

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Jaraaf v AJEL

Jaraaf
1–1Full time
AJEL

Ligue 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Stade de Diaraf

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:34
Jaraaf 1–1 AJEL DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.519

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 37–42–21
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Jaraaf v AJEL
  4. 26′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
  5. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Jaraaf 0–1 AJEL
  6. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 23% now
  7. 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' AJEL win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
  8. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  9. 38′The goal count is tracking the 1.4 we expected. 0–1 · 7–22–71
  10. 45′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 56%. 0–0 · 27–56–17
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Jaraaf 0–1 AJEL
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Jaraaf 0–1 AJEL
  13. 47′GOAL DISALLOWED · 47' AJEL
  14. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 57% now
  15. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was AJEL win 17%)
  16. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Jaraaf 0–1 AJEL
  17. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
  18. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' AJEL win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 21%)
  19. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
  20. 53′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 61%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
  21. 54′GOAL DISALLOWED · 54' AJEL
  22. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 61% now
  23. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was AJEL win 15%)
  24. 55′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 4–19–77
  25. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Jaraaf 0–1 AJEL
  26. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 19% now
  27. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' AJEL win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
  28. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Jaraaf 1–1 AJEL
  29. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 64% now
  30. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was AJEL win 14%)
  31. 59′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–0 · 21–65–14
  32. 59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Jaraaf
  33. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
  34. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' AJEL win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
  35. 66′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–0 · 18–71–12
  36. 69′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
  37. 73′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 0–0 · 13–78–9 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  38. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
  39. 76′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–0 · 11–81–8 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  40. 78′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
  41. 86′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 0–4–95
  42. 87′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  43. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Jaraaf 1–1 AJEL
  44. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
  45. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was AJEL win 3%)
  46. 89′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–1 · 3–95–2
  47. FTFULL TIME Jaraaf 1–1 AJEL
  48. FTJaraaf 1–1 AJEL · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Jaraaf 37%, draw 42%, AJEL 21%. Over 2.5 goals 18%, both teams to score 28%.

The AI’s read on Jaraaf v AJELBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Jaraaf win37%
Draw42%
AJEL win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 1

VenueStade de Diaraf

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jaraaf

AJEL

135Days since last match135

Last match: 4 June · Ligue 1 (Senegal)

Last match: 4 June · Ligue 1 (Senegal)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Jaraaf000
14AJEL000

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market–
Us42%

We make the draw a 42% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.6, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 26%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Jaraaf v AJEL0.86 – 0.59
Table places · points 0 v 02 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Jaraaf win37%––
Draw42%––
AJEL win21%––
Over 2.5 goals18%––
Both teams to score28%––
Over 1.5 goals45%––
Over 3.5 goals6%––
Jaraaf or draw79%––
Jaraaf clean sheet56%––
AJEL clean sheet43%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 26.3%
0123450 26.3 11.4 4.1 1 17.5 13.9 3.5 2 8.6 5.0 3 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Jaraaf down, AJEL across0–5 goals a side shown (100.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsAJE 1–0 JAR · JAR 0–2 AJE · AJE 0–1 JAR · JAR 1–1 AJE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season

JARAAF

No matches in our record yet.

AJEL

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1La Linguère000
2Jaraaf000
3Ouakam000
4Casa Sport000
5Stade de Mbour000
6Gorée000
7Diambars000
8HLM000
9Génération Foot000
10Pikine000
11Guédiawaye000
12DSC000
13Teungueth000
14AJEL000
15Wally Daan000
16Essamaye000

The competition's standings before kick-off.