

Jaraaf v AJEL
Jaraaf
AJELLigue 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Stade de Diaraf
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 37–42–21
- 1′KICK-OFF Jaraaf v AJEL
- 26′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
- 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Jaraaf 0–1 AJEL
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 23% now
- 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' AJEL win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
- 38′The goal count is tracking the 1.4 we expected. 0–1 · 7–22–71
- 45′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 56%. 0–0 · 27–56–17
- 45′HALF-TIME Jaraaf 0–1 AJEL
- 46′SECOND HALF Jaraaf 0–1 AJEL
- 47′GOAL DISALLOWED · 47' AJEL
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 57% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was AJEL win 17%)
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Jaraaf 0–1 AJEL
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' AJEL win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 21%)
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 21% now
- 53′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 61%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
- 54′GOAL DISALLOWED · 54' AJEL
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 61% now
- 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was AJEL win 15%)
- 55′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 4–19–77
- 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Jaraaf 0–1 AJEL
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 19% now
- 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' AJEL win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
- 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Jaraaf 1–1 AJEL
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 64% now
- 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was AJEL win 14%)
- 59′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–0 · 21–65–14
- 59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Jaraaf
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
- 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' AJEL win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
- 66′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–0 · 18–71–12
- 69′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
- 73′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 0–0 · 13–78–9 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
- 76′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–0 · 11–81–8 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
- 78′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
- 86′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 0–4–95
- 87′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Jaraaf 1–1 AJEL
- 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
- 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 93% (was AJEL win 3%)
- 89′We said the draw at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–1 · 3–95–2
- FTFULL TIME Jaraaf 1–1 AJEL
- FTJaraaf 1–1 AJEL · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassA draw is the likeliest result.
The Pitchside prediction: Jaraaf 37%, draw 42%, AJEL 21%. Over 2.5 goals 18%, both teams to score 28%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Jaraaf win37%
AJEL win21%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:00
RoundMatchday 1
VenueStade de Diaraf
Match timeline
All events
JaraafMIN
AJELEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Jaraaf
AJEL
Last match: 4 June · Ligue 1 (Senegal)
Last match: 4 June · Ligue 1 (Senegal)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make the draw a 42% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.6, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 26%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaraaf win | 37% | – | – |
| Draw | 42% | – | – |
| AJEL win | 21% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 18% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 28% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 45% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 6% | – | – |
| Jaraaf or draw | 79% | – | – |
| Jaraaf clean sheet | 56% | – | – |
| AJEL clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Ligue 1 this season
JARAAF
No matches in our record yet.
AJEL
No matches in our record yet.
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Linguère | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Jaraaf | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Ouakam | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Casa Sport | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Stade de Mbour | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Gorée | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Diambars | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | HLM | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Génération Foot | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Pikine | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Guédiawaye | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | DSC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Teungueth | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | AJEL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Wally Daan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Essamaye | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
La Linguère
Ouakam
Casa Sport
Stade de Mbour
Gorée
Diambars
HLM
Génération Foot
Pikine
Guédiawaye
DSC
Teungueth
Wally Daan
Essamaye