HLM v Casa Sport

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 41%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 27–41–31
3. 1′KICK-OFF HLM v Casa Sport
4. 8′We said the draw at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 8–18–73
5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' HLM 0–1 Casa Sport
6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
7. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Casa Sport win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 18%)
8. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' HLM 1–1 Casa Sport
9. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 44% now
10. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Casa Sport win 30%)
11. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' HLM 1–2 Casa Sport
12. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
13. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Casa Sport win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 19%)
14. 30′3 goals already, more than the 1.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 6–19–76
15. 45′We said the draw at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
16. 45′HALF-TIME HLM 1–2 Casa Sport
17. 46′SECOND HALF HLM 1–2 Casa Sport
18. 50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' HLM
19. 50′GOAL DISALLOWED · 50' Casa Sport
20. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 58% now
21. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Casa Sport win 22%)
22. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' HLM 1–2 Casa Sport
23. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 17% now
24. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Casa Sport win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
25. 54′We said the draw at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 60%. 0–0 · 19–60–21
26. 57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' HLM
27. 57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' Casa Sport
28. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 62% now
29. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Casa Sport win 20%)
30. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' HLM 1–2 Casa Sport
31. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 15% now
32. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Casa Sport win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 15%)
33. 61′We said the draw at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–0 · 16–65–18
34. 62′We said the draw at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
35. 68′We said the draw at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–0 · 14–71–15 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
36. 71′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 12–74–13
37. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' HLM 2–2 Casa Sport
38. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
39. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Casa Sport win 13%)
40. 72′We said the draw at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–2 · 12–75–13
41. 76′We said the draw at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–0 · 10–80–11 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
42. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
43. 80′We said the draw at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–2 · 7–85–8
44. 85′We said the draw at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–2 · 4–91–5
45. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Draw: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
46. 90′We said the draw at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–2 · 2–95–3
47. FTFULL TIME HLM 2–2 Casa Sport
48. FTHLM 2–2 Casa Sport · Draw: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.