DSC v Gorée prediction · Ligue 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

DSC 0–0 Gorée DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said a draw~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.571

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 24–39–37
1′KICK-OFF DSC v Gorée
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 49% now
43′We published the draw at 39%. Our model now makes it 51%. 0–0 · 20–51–29
45′HALF-TIME DSC 0–0 Gorée
46′SECOND HALF DSC 0–0 Gorée
50′We published the draw at 39%. Our model now makes it 55%. 0–0 · 19–55–27
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 59% now
57′We published the draw at 39%. Our model now makes it 60%. 0–0 · 17–60–24
64′We published the draw at 39%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–0 · 14–65–20
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
69′We published the draw at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–0 · 12–70–17
73′We published the draw at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–0 · 11–75–15
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
78′We published the draw at 39%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–0 · 8–81–11
81′We published the draw at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
84′We published the draw at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–0 · 4–90–6
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 90% now
90′We published the draw at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–0 · 2–95–3
FTFULL TIME DSC 0–0 Gorée
FTDSC 0–0 Gorée · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: DSC 24%, draw 39%, Gorée 37%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on DSC v GoréeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

DSC win24%

Draw39%

Gorée win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

DSC

Gorée

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Ligue 1 (Senegal)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Gorée	1	+2	3
13	DSC	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 22 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make the draw a 39% chance. The model expects 0.7–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 21%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · DSC v Gorée~~0.73 – 0.98

~~Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 17 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 3~~13 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
DSC win	24%	–	–
Draw	39%	–	–
Gorée win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	25%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
DSC or draw	63%	–	–
DSC clean sheet	38%	–	–
Gorée clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 21.2%

0123450 21.2 15.0 8.6 2.9 1 10.5 15.1 6.1 2.1 2 4.9 4.6 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+DSC down, Gorée across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,032 Ligue 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Ligue 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 23.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.30 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

DSC at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Gorée away: 0.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.73 goals for DSC, 0.98 for Gorée. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.30

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GOR 1–0 DSC · DSC 0–4 GOR · GOR 0–2 DSC · DSC 0–1 GOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Ligue 1 this season · since 17 Oct

DSC

L1–2

GORÉE

W2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Génération Foot	1	+3	3
2	Gorée	1	+2	3
3	Guédiawaye	1	+1	3
4	Diambars	1	+1	3
5	Casa Sport	1	0	1
6	HLM	1	0	1
7	Jaraaf	1	0	1
8	AJEL	1	0	1
9	Stade de Mbour	1	0	1
10	Wally Daan	1	0	1
11	Ouakam	0	0	0
12	Teungueth	0	0	0
13	DSC	1	−1	0
14	Essamaye	1	−1	0
15	La Linguère	1	−2	0
16	Pikine	1	−3	0