ST Mirren v Dundee prediction · Premiership

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

ST Mirren 2–1 Dundee ST MIRREN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ST Mirren win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.456

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.510

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ST Mirren win at 45%.
2′Little has changed for our model: ST Mirren 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
2′KICK-OFF ST Mirren v Dundee
21′We said ST Mirren at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–10
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' ST Mirren 1–0 Dundee
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' ST Mirren win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
22′Calvin Ramsay scores for ST Mirren on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–10
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
44′We said ST Mirren at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' ST Mirren win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME ST Mirren 1–0 Dundee
45′SECOND HALF ST Mirren 1–0 Dundee
57′We said ST Mirren at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' ST Mirren 2–0 Dundee
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' ST Mirren win: 45% at kick-off, 96% now
58′56′: Eseosa Sule on the scoresheet for ST Mirren, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Dundee · On: Charlie Reilly · Off: Joseph Bevan
69′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Eseosa Sule · ST Mirren
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' ST Mirren · On: Jake Young · Off: Eseosa Sule
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dundee · On: Ryan Finnigan · Off: Callum Jones
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Ismeal Kabia · ST Mirren
74′We said ST Mirren at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
74′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 85–13–1
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' ST Mirren 2–1 Dundee
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' ST Mirren win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
75′Dundee pull one back on 74′ through Bradley·Fink. 2–1. 2–1 · 86–13–1
80′We said ST Mirren at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' ST Mirren · On: Chris Mochrie · Off: Ismeal Kabia
84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Luke Thomas · ST Mirren
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Dundee · On: Alfie Harrison · Off: Alan Forrest
86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Alfie Harrison · Dundee
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' ST Mirren win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
88′14 shots for Dundee, 9 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME ST Mirren 2–1 Dundee
FTST Mirren 2–1 Dundee · ST Mirren win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ST Mirren are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ST Mirren 45%, draw 26%, Dundee 29%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on ST Mirren v DundeeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

ST Mirren win45%

Draw26%

Dundee win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueThe SMiSA Stadium

Line-ups

ST Mirren

4-2-3-1

Dundee

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ST Mirren

Dundee

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Dundee	9	+3	14
8	ST Mirren	9	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ST Mirren

4-2-3-1

1 J. Chapman

47 C. Ramsay

13 A. Gogić

22 M. Fraser

3 D. John

8 R. Carr

53 Henry Fieldson

16 L. Thomas

88 K. Phillips

19 Ismeal Kabia

9 Eseosa Sule

Coach · Craig McLeish

Substitutes

4 · L. Donnelly

6 · Louis Jackson

37 · C. McEvoy

23 · C. Mochrie

10 · Samu

2 · J. Richardson

35 · Grant Tamosevicius

30 · F. Taylor

20 · J. Young

Dundee

4-4-2

1 O. Goodman

7 D. Wright

4 R. Astley

5 O. Bevan

12 I. Samuels

27 J. Bevan

28 C. Jones

48 E. Hamilton

14 A. Forrest

11 A. Hay

21 B. Fink

Coach · S. Pressley

Substitutes

77 · Alfie Harrison

13 · K. O'Hara

3 · I. Odutayo

18 · C. Reilly

8 · R. Finnigan

17 · Ž. Bešir

6 · M. Akinmboni

26 · J. Wright

2 · B. Halliday

Our number · st mirren winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make ST Mirren a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ST Mirren v Dundee~~1.50 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~8 v 4

~~The market · ST Mirren win~~42% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ST Mirren win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ST Mirren win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	26%	26%	0
Dundee win	29%	32%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	56%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	60%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
ST Mirren or draw	71%	68%	+3
ST Mirren clean sheet	31%	–	–
Dundee clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 8.1 4.7 1 10.5 12.2 7.0 2.7 2 7.8 9.1 5.2 2.0 3 3.9 4.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ST Mirren down, Dundee across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,224 Premiership matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ST Mirren at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dundee away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for ST Mirren, 1.16 for Dundee. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUN 1–0 STM · STM 0–0 DUN · DUN 3–1 STM · STM 1–0 DUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 30 Aug

ST MIRREN

WLLLLL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–5 · 1–3

DUNDEE

LDLWWD1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	9	+6	20
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee	9	+3	14
5	ST Johnstone	9	0	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	−1	12
7	Aberdeen	9	0	11
8	ST Mirren	9	−8	10
9	Falkirk	9	−3	9
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	−10	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7