ST Johnstone v Motherwell prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ST JohnstoneDrawMotherwell

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Motherwell 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Motherwell are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ST Johnstone 33%, draw 27%, Motherwell 39%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on ST Johnstone v MotherwellBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

ST Johnstone win33%

Draw27%

Motherwell win39%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMcDiarmid Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ST Johnstone

Motherwell

4Days since last match11

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	ST Johnstone	9	0	12
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · motherwell winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market31%

Us39%

~~Market~~31%

We make Motherwell a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ST Johnstone v Motherwell~~1.17 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 8~~5 v 10

~~The market · Motherwell win~~31% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Motherwell win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ST Johnstone win	33%	42%	−9
Draw	27%	27%	0
Motherwell win	39%	31%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	55%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
ST Johnstone or draw	61%	69%	−8
ST Johnstone clean sheet	27%	–	–
Motherwell clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.6 11.0 7.1 3.1 1 9.9 12.8 8.3 3.6 2 5.8 7.5 4.9 2.1 3 2.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ST Johnstone down, Motherwell across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,224 Premiership matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ST Johnstone at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Motherwell away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for ST Johnstone, 1.30 for Motherwell. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STJ 0–0 MOT · MOT 3–2 STJ · STJ 2–1 MOT · STJ 1–0 MOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept

ST JOHNSTONE

WLDWDL2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–4

MOTHERWELL

WLLLLL3–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	9	+6	20
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee	9	+3	14
5	ST Johnstone	9	0	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	−1	12
7	Aberdeen	9	0	11
8	ST Mirren	9	−8	10
9	Falkirk	9	−3	9
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	−10	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7