ST Johnstone v Dundee Utd prediction · Premiership

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

ST Johnstone 1–1 Dundee Utd ST JOHNSTONE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said ST Johnstone win~~38%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.788

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ST Johnstone win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: ST Johnstone 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF ST Johnstone v Dundee Utd
7′Little has changed for our model: ST Johnstone 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–34
21′A goal for ST Johnstone on 21′. 0–0 · 36–32–32
22′We said ST Johnstone at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–21–11
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' ST Johnstone 1–0 Dundee Utd · Josh Fowler (assist Enes Alic)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' ST Johnstone win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
32′We said ST Johnstone at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Dylan Tait · Dundee Utd
45′HALF-TIME ST Johnstone 1–0 Dundee Utd
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ST Johnstone · On: Ruari Paton · Off: Josh Fowler
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dundee Utd · On: abdoulaye yoro · Off: Daniel Bennie
46′SECOND HALF ST Johnstone 1–0 Dundee Utd
53′We said ST Johnstone at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' ST Johnstone win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dundee Utd · On: Zachary Sapsford · Off: Idjessi Metsoko
66′We said ST Johnstone at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Dundee Utd · On: Lachlan Rose · Off: Dylan Tait
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Lyall Cameron · Dundee Utd
74′We said ST Johnstone at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′We said ST Johnstone at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–74–12
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' ST Johnstone 1–1 Dundee Utd
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' ST Johnstone win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 74% (was ST Johnstone win 13%)
80′79′: Lyall Cameron on the scoresheet for Dundee Utd, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 11–78–11
83′We said ST Johnstone at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–84–8
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' ST Johnstone · On: Kai Fotheringham · Off: Taylor Steven
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' ST Johnstone · On: Jamie Gullan · Off: Sam Stanton
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' ST Johnstone win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Reece McAlear · ST Johnstone
90′We said ST Johnstone at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
90′1–1 at the end. Our 38% on ST Johnstone misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Jason Holt · ST Johnstone
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Zidane Iqbal · Dundee Utd
FTFULL TIME ST Johnstone 1–1 Dundee Utd
FTST Johnstone 1–1 Dundee Utd · ST Johnstone win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with ST Johnstone just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: ST Johnstone 38%, draw 28%, Dundee Utd 34%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on ST Johnstone v Dundee UtdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ST Johnstone win38%

Draw28%

Dundee Utd win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueMcDiarmid Park

Line-ups

ST Johnstone

4-2-3-1

Dundee Utd

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ST Johnstone

Dundee Utd

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	ST Johnstone	8	0	11
6	Dundee Utd	8	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ST Johnstone

4-2-3-1

1 T. Steward

33 L. Smith

19 D. Finlayson

3 C. Diabate

2 E. Alic

42 R. McAlear

8 J. Holt

11 S. Stanton

30 J. Cotterill

7 T. Steven

9 J. Fowler

Coach · Simo Valakari

Substitutes

20 · R. Sinclair

14 · M. Foulds

6 · B. Mikulic

32 · J. Campbell

26 · M. Todd

23 · L. Chalmers

10 · J. Gullan

99 · R. Paton

18 · K. Fotheringham

Dundee Utd

4-3-3

1 J. Walton

23 J. Rawlins

3 B. Esselink

18 M. Forbes

19 K. Ciubotaru

10 D. Tait

16 L. Cameron

14 Z. Iqbal

21 J. Randall

93 I. Metsoko

77 D. Bennie

Coach · Jim Goodwin

Substitutes

30 · J. Amissah

6 · R. Graham

4 · I. Iovu

22 · D. Naamo

8 · P. Camara

26 · A. Yoro

20 · N. Farrugia

15 · L. Rose

9 · Z. Sapsford

Our number · st johnstone winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make ST Johnstone a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · ST Johnstone v Dundee Utd~~1.25 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 11~~5 v 6

~~The market · ST Johnstone win~~36% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ST Johnstone win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ST Johnstone win	38%	36%	+2
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Dundee Utd win	34%	38%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	56%	−13
Both teams to score	49%	59%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	69%	77%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	22%	34%	−12
ST Johnstone or draw	66%	62%	+4
ST Johnstone clean sheet	32%	–	–
Dundee Utd clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.2 10.5 6.1 2.4 1 11.3 12.9 7.5 2.9 2 7.0 8.0 4.7 3 2.9 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ST Johnstone down, Dundee Utd across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,218 Premiership matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ST Johnstone at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dundee Utd away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for ST Johnstone, 1.16 for Dundee Utd. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUN 1–0 STJ · STJ 1–2 DUN · DUN 2–0 STJ · STJ 1–0 DUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 22 Aug

ST JOHNSTONE

LDWLDW1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

DUNDEE UTD

LWLDWW0–2 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	8	+12	21
2	Rangers	8	+6	19
3	Heart Of Midlothian	8	+11	16
4	Dundee	8	+3	13
5	ST Johnstone	8	0	11
6	Dundee Utd	8	−1	11
7	ST Mirren	8	−6	10
8	Aberdeen	8	−2	8
9	Motherwell	8	−4	8
10	Hibernian	8	−4	7
11	Falkirk	8	−4	6
12	Kilmarnock	8	−11	5