Rangers v ST Johnstone prediction · Premiership

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Rangers 4–0 ST Johnstone RANGERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rangers win~~75%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.096

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.074

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rangers win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rangers was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 75% now. 0–0 · 75–16–9
1′KICK-OFF Rangers v ST Johnstone
29′We published Rangers at 75%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–2
29′Rangers find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–8–2
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Rangers 1–0 ST Johnstone
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Rangers win: 75% at kick-off, 89% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 89–8–2
45′HALF-TIME Rangers 1–0 ST Johnstone
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ST Johnstone · On: Božo Mikulić · Off: Daniel Finlayson
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ST Johnstone · On: Danny schmidt · Off: Josh Campbell
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ST Johnstone · On: Kai Fotheringham · Off: Josh Fowler
47′SECOND HALF Rangers 1–0 ST Johnstone
58′We published Rangers at 75%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
62′Ryan Naderi scores for Rangers on 61′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Rangers 2–0 ST Johnstone · Ryan Naderi
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Rangers win: 75% at kick-off, 99% now
63′We published Rangers at 75%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' ST Johnstone · On: Logan Chalmers · Off: Jamie Gullan
67′We published Rangers at 75%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Rangers 3–0 ST Johnstone
68′66′: Kevin Kelsy on the scoresheet for Rangers, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Rangers · On: Tuur Rommens · Off: Dan Neil
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Rangers · On: Djeidi Gassama · Off: Ryan Naderi
74′🟥 RED CARD · 74' ST Johnstone
76′A red card for ST Johnstone on 74′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rangers · On: Ben Godfrey · Off: Dujon Sterling
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rangers · On: Bojan Miovski · Off: Min-su Kim
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' ST Johnstone · On: Jason Holt · Off: Reece McAlear
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Rangers · On: Tochi Chukwuani · Off: Kevin Kelsy
88′Rangers ahead on 87′ through Tochi Chukwuani. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Rangers 4–0 ST Johnstone · Tochi Chukwuani
89′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 4–0. We called Rangers at 75% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Taylor Steven · ST Johnstone
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Badredine Bouanani · Rangers
FTFULL TIME Rangers 4–0 ST Johnstone
FTRangers 4–0 ST Johnstone · Rangers win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rangers are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rangers 75%, draw 16%, ST Johnstone 9%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Rangers v ST JohnstoneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rangers win75%

Draw16%

ST Johnstone win9%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueIbrox Stadium

Line-ups

Rangers

4-2-3-1

ST Johnstone

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rangers

ST Johnstone

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Rangers	9	+6	20
5	ST Johnstone	9	0	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rangers

4-2-3-1

1 I. Pandur

21 D. Sterling

37 E. Fernandez

24 O. Makhanya

29 J. Penrice

43 N. Raskin

6 D. Neil

26 B. Bouanani

20 R. Naderi

10 Minsu Kim

19 K. Kelsy

Coach · D. McInnes

Substitutes

42 · T. Chukwuani

31 · L. Kelly

28 · B. Miovski

18 · K. Nedeljković

25 · T. Rommens

4 · B. Godfrey

23 · D. Gassama

22 · V. Dragojević

52 · Findlay Curtis

ST Johnstone

4-4-2

1 T. Steward

33 L. Smith

19 D. Finlayson

3 C. Diabate

2 E. Alıç

32 J. Campbell

42 R. McAlear

30 J. Cotterill

7 T. Steven

9 J. Fowler

10 J. Gullan

Coach · S. Valakari

Substitutes

18 · K. Fotheringham

14 · M. Foulds

8 · J. Holt

6 · B. Mikulić

99 · R. Paton

22 · D. Schmidt

20 · R. Sinclair

23 · L. Chalmers

26 · M. Todd

Our number · rangers winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

75% The market78%

Us75%

~~Market~~78%

We make Rangers a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rangers v ST Johnstone~~2.42 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 12~~2 v 5

~~The market · Rangers win~~78% · ours 75%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rangers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rangers win	75%	78%	−3
Draw	16%	14%	+2
ST Johnstone win	9%	8%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	60%	62%	−2
Both teams to score	46%	45%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
Rangers or draw	91%	92%	−1
Rangers clean sheet	50%	–	–
ST Johnstone clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.8%

0123450 4.5 3.1 1 10.6 7.5 2.7 2 12.8 8.9 3.2 3 10.3 7.1 2.5 4 6.3 4.3 5 3.1 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Rangers down, ST Johnstone across0–5 goals a side shown (96.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,224 Premiership matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rangers at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). ST Johnstone away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.42 goals for Rangers, 0.71 for ST Johnstone. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAN 3–1 STJ · STJ 0–1 RAN · RAN 2–0 STJ · RAN 2–0 STJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept

RANGERS

WWWWWD2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2

ST JOHNSTONE

DWLDWD1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	9	+6	20
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee	9	+3	14
5	ST Johnstone	9	0	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	−1	12
7	Aberdeen	9	0	11
8	ST Mirren	9	−8	10
9	Falkirk	9	−3	9
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	−10	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7