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Rangers v Kilmarnock

Rangers

3–1Full time

Kilmarnock

Premiership · SAT 10 OCT · Ibrox Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Rangers 3–1 Kilmarnock RANGERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rangers win~~75%

~~The market said~~83%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.094

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.045

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rangers win at 75%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rangers 75% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–15–10
1′KICK-OFF Rangers v Kilmarnock
14′A goal for Rangers on 15′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 72–18–10
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Rangers 1–0 Kilmarnock · Ryan Naderi
18′We said Rangers at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–3
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Rangers win: 75% at kick-off, 89% now
22′24′ and it is 1–0: Kevin Kelsy on the scoresheet for Rangers. 1–0 · 89–8–3
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Rangers 2–0 Kilmarnock · Kevin Kelsy
27′We said Rangers at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
29′We said Rangers at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Rangers win: 75% at kick-off, 98% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Rangers 2–0 Kilmarnock · Ryan Naderi
45′SECOND HALF Rangers 3–0 Kilmarnock
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Rangers 3–0 Kilmarnock · Ryan Naderi
48′Rangers ahead on 44′ through Ryan Naderi. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rangers · On: Kosta Nedeljkovic · Off: Dujon Sterling
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Michael Schjonning-Larsen · Kilmarnock
60′⚽ GOAL · 15' Rangers 3–0 Kilmarnock · Ryan Naderi (assist James Penrice)
60′⚽ GOAL · 24' Rangers 3–0 Kilmarnock · Kevin Kelsy
60′⚽ GOAL · 44' Rangers 3–0 Kilmarnock · Ryan Naderi (assist Djeidi Gassama)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rangers · On: Kosta Nedeljkovic · Off: Dujon Sterling
60′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Michael Schjonning-Larsen · Kilmarnock
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Kosta Nedeljkovic · Rangers
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Rangers · On: Findlay Curtis · Off: Kevin Kelsy
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kilmarnock · On: Nicky Clescenco · Off: Erik Ring
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Kilmarnock · On: Jamie Brandon · Off: Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kilmarnock · On: Djenairo Daniels · Off: Greg Kiltie
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Rangers · On: Tochi Chukwuani · Off: Dan Neil
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Rangers · On: Bojan Miovski · Off: Min-su Kim
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Rangers · On: Badredine Bouanani · Off: Djeidi Gassama
89′⚽ GOAL · 90' Rangers 3–0 Kilmarnock · Nicky Clescenco
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Rangers 3–1 Kilmarnock · Nicky Clescenco
FTFULL TIME Rangers 3–1 Kilmarnock
FTRangers 3–1 Kilmarnock · Rangers win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rangers win75%

Draw15%

Kilmarnock win10%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Ibrox Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Rangers

4-2-3-1

1 I. Pandur

21 D. Sterling

37 E. Fernandez

24 O. Makhanya

29 J. Penrice

43 N. Raskin

6 D. Neil

10 M. Kim

20 R. Naderi

23 D. Gassama

19 K. Kelsy

Coach · Derek McInnes

Substitutes

31 · L. Kelly

4 · B. Godfrey

25 · T. Rommens

18 · K. Nedeljkovic

22 · V. Dragojevic

42 · T. Chukwuani

52 · F. Curtis

26 · B. Bouanani

28 · B. Miovski

Kilmarnock

4-2-3-1

12 C. Ferrie

3 M. Kamara

4 C. McCarthy

14 G. Stanger

21 M. Schjonning-Larsen

36 A. Tshibola

18 T. Lowery

8 E. Ring

10 T. John-Jules

11 G. Kiltie

9 J. Hugill

Coach · Neil McCann

Substitutes

40 · C. Armour

6 · R. Deas

19 · J. Meier

2 · J. Brandon

5 · M. O'Hara

7 · R. McKenzie

20 · N. Clescenco

27 · I. Owen

29 · D. Daniels

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rangers

4-2-3-1

1 I. Pandur

21 D. Sterling

37 E. Fernandez

24 O. Makhanya

29 J. Penrice

43 N. Raskin

6 D. Neil

10 M. Kim

20 R. Naderi

23 D. Gassama

19 K. Kelsy

Coach · Derek McInnes

Substitutes

31 · L. Kelly

4 · B. Godfrey

25 · T. Rommens

18 · K. Nedeljkovic

22 · V. Dragojevic

42 · T. Chukwuani

52 · F. Curtis

26 · B. Bouanani

28 · B. Miovski

Kilmarnock

4-2-3-1

12 C. Ferrie

3 M. Kamara

4 C. McCarthy

14 G. Stanger

21 M. Schjonning-Larsen

36 A. Tshibola

18 T. Lowery

8 E. Ring

10 T. John-Jules

11 G. Kiltie

9 J. Hugill

Coach · Neil McCann

Substitutes

40 · C. Armour

6 · R. Deas

19 · J. Meier

2 · J. Brandon

5 · M. O'Hara

7 · R. McKenzie

20 · N. Clescenco

27 · I. Owen

29 · D. Daniels

Our number · rangers winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

75% The market83%

Us75%

~~Market~~83%

We make Rangers a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rangers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 82% to 83% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rangers win	75%	83%	−8
Draw	15%	11%	+4
Kilmarnock win	10%	6%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	47%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	86%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	50%	−6
Rangers or draw	90%	94%	−4
Rangers clean sheet	44%	–	–
Kilmarnock clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.0%

0123450 3.4 2.7 1 8.5 7.0 2.9 2 11.0 9.0 3.7 3 9.5 7.7 3.2 4 6.2 5.0 2.1 5 3.3 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Rangers down, Kilmarnock across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,212 Premiership matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.85 goals a meeting; 10 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rangers at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kilmarnock away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.60 goals for Rangers, 0.82 for Kilmarnock. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.85

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 13

~~Both scored~~8 of 13

~~Last meetings~~RAN 5–1 KIL · KIL 0–3 RAN · RAN 3–1 KIL · KIL 2–4 RAN

Form · last six in Premiership

RANGERS

LWWWWW1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

KILMARNOCK

LLLDWD1–5 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	7	+10	18
2	Rangers	7	+4	16
3	Heart Of Midlothian	7	+6	13
4	Dundee	7	+2	10
5	ST Mirren	7	−1	10
6	ST Johnstone	7	−1	8
7	Aberdeen	7	−1	8
8	Dundee Utd	7	−2	8
9	Motherwell	7	−2	8
10	Hibernian	7	−3	7
11	Falkirk	7	−3	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	−9	5