Motherwell v ST Mirren prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MotherwellDrawST Mirren

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Motherwell 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Motherwell are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Motherwell 52%, draw 25%, ST Mirren 23%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Motherwell v ST MirrenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Motherwell win52%

Draw25%

ST Mirren win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueFir Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Motherwell

ST Mirren

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	ST Mirren	10	−7	13
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · motherwell winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Motherwell a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Motherwell v ST Mirren~~1.61 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~10 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Motherwell win	52%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
ST Mirren win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Motherwell or draw	77%	–	–
Motherwell clean sheet	38%	–	–
ST Mirren clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 7.4 3.6 1 12.0 11.9 5.8 2 9.7 9.5 4.6 3 5.2 5.1 2.5 4 2.1 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Motherwell down, ST Mirren across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Motherwell at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). ST Mirren away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Motherwell, 0.98 for ST Mirren. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STM 3–3 MOT · STM 0–5 MOT · MOT 2–0 STM · MOT 1–4 STM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept

MOTHERWELL

WLLLLL3–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–3

ST MIRREN

LLLLLW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–5 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	10	+10	23
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee Utd	10	0	15
5	Dundee	10	+2	14
6	ST Mirren	10	−7	13
7	Falkirk	10	0	12
8	ST Johnstone	10	−4	12
9	Aberdeen	10	−1	11
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	−13	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7