Motherwell v Heart Of Midlothian prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MotherwellDrawHeart Of Midlothian

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Heart Of Midlothian 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Heart Of Midlothian just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Motherwell 37%, draw 26%, Heart Of Midlothian 38%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Motherwell v Heart Of MidlothianBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Motherwell win37%

Draw26%

Heart Of Midlothian win38%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueFir Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Motherwell

Heart Of Midlothian

8Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heart of midlothian winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

38% The market43%

Us38%

~~Market~~43%

We make Heart Of Midlothian a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Motherwell v Heart Of Midlothian~~1.35 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 16~~10 v 3

~~The market · Heart Of Midlothian win~~43% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Heart Of Midlothian win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Motherwell win	37%	31%	+6
Draw	26%	26%	0
Heart Of Midlothian win	38%	43%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Motherwell or draw	62%	57%	+5
Motherwell clean sheet	25%	–	–
Heart Of Midlothian clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.7 9.0 6.2 2.8 1 8.9 12.2 8.3 3.8 2 6.0 8.2 5.6 2.6 3 2.7 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Motherwell down, Heart Of Midlothian across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Motherwell at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Heart Of Midlothian away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Motherwell, 1.37 for Heart Of Midlothian. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MOT 1–1 HEA · HEA 3–1 MOT · MOT 0–0 HEA · HEA 3–3 MOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept

MOTHERWELL

WLLLLL3–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–3

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN

WWLDWL3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 1–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	10	+10	23
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee Utd	10	0	15
5	Dundee	10	+2	14
6	ST Mirren	10	−7	13
7	Falkirk	10	0	12
8	ST Johnstone	10	−4	12
9	Aberdeen	10	−1	11
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	−13	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7