Motherwell v Celtic prediction · Premiership

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Motherwell 0–2 Celtic CELTIC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Celtic win~~57%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.271

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.244

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Celtic win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Celtic was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 21–22–58
1′KICK-OFF Motherwell v Celtic
2′Much as we predicted: Celtic was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 21–22–57
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Motherwell 0–1 Celtic
8′⚽ GOAL · 9' Motherwell 0–1 Celtic · Camilo Duran
9′Celtic ahead on 9′ through Camilo Duran. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–14–79
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Celtic win: 57% at kick-off, 79% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Celtic win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
10′We published Celtic at 57%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 7–14–79
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Celtic win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Celtic win: 57% at kick-off, 79% now
11′Celtic ahead on 9′ through Camilo Duran. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–14–79
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Celtic win: 57% at kick-off, 57% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Celtic win: 57% at kick-off, 79% now
14′We published Celtic at 57%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 7–14–79
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 6–15–79
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 6–15–79
35′We published Celtic at 57%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 5–15–80
37′We published Celtic at 57%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 5–15–80
40′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Joe Hodge · Motherwell
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Celtic win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Celtic win: 57% at kick-off, 80% now
45′SECOND HALF Motherwell 0–1 Celtic
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Motherwell 0–2 Celtic · Camilo Duran
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Motherwell 0–2 Celtic · Benjamin Nygren (assist Kasper Hogh)
70′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Motherwell · On: Ibrahim Said · Off: Willy Gabriel Vogt
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Motherwell · On: Jardell Kanga · Off: Sebastian Palmer-Houlden
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Motherwell · On: Eythor Bjørgolfsson · Off: Dylan Levitt
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Celtic · On: Haissem Hassan · Off: Camilo Duran
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Celtic · On: Shumaira Mheuka · Off: Kasper Hogh
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Celtic · On: Jota · Off: Sebastian Tounekti
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Celtic · On: Oliver Sorensen · Off: Benjamin Nygren
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Kieran Tierney · Celtic
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Celtic · On: Jordan Lotomba · Off: Kieran Tierney
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Motherwell · On: Jake Max Girdwood-Reich · Off: Stephen O'Donnell
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Motherwell · On: Tawanda Maswanhise · Off: Alex·Lowry
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Jordan Lotomba · Celtic
FTFULL TIME Motherwell 0–2 Celtic
FTMotherwell 0–2 Celtic · Celtic win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Motherwell win21%

Draw22%

Celtic win57%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueFir Park

Line-ups

Motherwell

4-2-3-1

Celtic

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Motherwell

Celtic

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Celtic	7	+10	18
9	Motherwell	7	−2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

'O'Neill unaware of trialist goalkeeper Inzalaco' - gossipBBC Sport · 2 hours ago · Celtic

Scottish Premiership: Naderi puts Rangers top and Hearts rout St MirrenThe Guardian · 18 hours ago · Rangers, Kilmarnock, Celtic

Celtic decide against offering Bakayoko deal - gossipBBC Sport · 1 day ago · Celtic, Hibernian

Celtic set to cast eyes over Goalkeeper who has been eyed up by Blackburn & WrexhamFootball League World · 1 day ago · Celtic, Blackburn, Wrexham

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Motherwell

4-2-3-1

1 A. Paulsen

7 T. Sparrow

2 S. O'Donnell

5 M. Moormann

45 E. Longelo

8 L. Fadinger

63 D. Levitt

77 W. Vogt

11 A. Lowry

71 J. Hodge

47 S. Palmer-Houlden

Coach · Alfred Johansson

Substitutes

21 · Matty Connelly

4 · J. Knight-Lebel

6 · J. McGhee

3 · J. Girdwood-Reich

27 · M. Booth

13 · J. Kanga

19 · I. Said

18 · T. Maswanhise

15 · E. Bjorgolfsson

Celtic

4-2-3-1

1 V. Sinisalo

51 C. Donovan

47 D. Murray

5 L. Scales

63 K. Tierney

42 C. McGregor

22 M. Baur

11 C. Duran

8 B. Nygren

17 S. Tounekti

9 K. Hogh

Coach · Martin O'Neill

Substitutes

26 · S. Johnstone

3 · J. Lotomba

6 · A. Trusty

21 · A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

18 · O. Sorensen

49 · J. Forrest

7 · Jota

23 · H. Hassan

29 · S. Mheuka

Our number · celtic winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

57% The market60%

Us57%

~~Market~~60%

We make Celtic a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · celtic win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. The market has gone from 59% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Motherwell win	21%	19%	+1
Draw	22%	21%	+1
Celtic win	57%	60%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	58%	65%	−7
Both teams to score	56%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	81%	84%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	44%	−8
Motherwell or draw	43%	40%	+2
Motherwell clean sheet	14%	–	–
Celtic clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.9 9.3 9.1 6.0 3.0 1 5.2 10.1 9.8 6.4 3.2 2 2.9 5.5 5.3 3.4 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Motherwell down, Celtic across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,216 Premiership matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 3.35 goals a meeting; 12 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Motherwell at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Celtic away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Motherwell, 1.96 for Celtic. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:38. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.35

~~Over 2.5~~12 of 17

~~Both scored~~10 of 17

~~Last meetings~~MOT 2–3 CEL · CEL 3–1 MOT · MOT 2–0 CEL · CEL 3–2 MOT

Form · last six in Premiership

MOTHERWELL

DDWLLL0–0 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 1–2

CELTIC

WWWWWL5–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rangers	8	+6	19
2	Celtic	7	+10	18
3	Heart Of Midlothian	8	+11	16
4	Dundee	8	+3	13
5	Dundee Utd	8	−1	11
6	ST Mirren	8	−6	10
7	ST Johnstone	7	−1	8
8	Aberdeen	7	−1	8
9	Motherwell	7	−2	8
10	Hibernian	8	−4	7
11	Falkirk	8	−4	6
12	Kilmarnock	8	−11	5