Kilmarnock v Motherwell

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Motherwell win at 39%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Motherwell was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 36–26–39
3. 1′KICK-OFF Kilmarnock v Motherwell
4. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Kilmarnock 1–0 Motherwell
5. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Motherwell win: 39% at kick-off, 18% now
6. 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Kilmarnock win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Motherwell win 18%)
7. 3′Kilmarnock find the net on 1′. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–21–18
8. 3′We said Motherwell at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 62–21–18
9. 3′Kilmarnock ahead on 2′ through Greg Kiltie. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–21–18
10. 8′Kilmarnock ahead on 2′ through Greg Kiltie. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–21–17
11. 9′We said Motherwell at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 62–21–17
12. 17′Much as we predicted: Motherwell was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 1–1 · 34–29–37
13. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Kilmarnock 1–1 Motherwell
14. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Motherwell win: 39% at kick-off, 37% now
15. 18′Alex·Lowry scores for Motherwell on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–29–37
16. 35′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Kilmarnock · On: Jamie Brandon · Off: Michael-John Kamson-Kamara
17. 36′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Kilmarnock · On: Aaron Tshibola · Off: Bailey Rice
18. 39′Motherwell have had 10 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 31–36–33
19. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Kilmarnock win 30%)
20. 45′HALF-TIME Kilmarnock 1–1 Motherwell
21. 45′SECOND HALF Kilmarnock 1–1 Motherwell
22. 52′🟥 RED CARD · 52' Kilmarnock
23. 53′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 27–43–29
24. 53′A red card for Kilmarnock on 52′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 27–43–29
25. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Motherwell win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
26. 56′We published Motherwell at 39%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–2 · 6–20–74
27. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' George Stanger · Kilmarnock
28. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Kilmarnock 1–2 Motherwell
29. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Motherwell win: 39% at kick-off, 74% now
30. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Motherwell win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 20%)
31. 58′56′: Sebastian Palmer-Houlden on the scoresheet for Motherwell, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–74
32. 58′We published Motherwell at 39%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–2 · 5–20–74
33. 59′We published Motherwell at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
34. 59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–20–75
35. 59′Kilmarnock level it on 58′ through Tyreece John-Jules. 2–2. 2–2 · 25–48–27
36. 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kilmarnock 2–2 Motherwell · Tyreece John-Jules
37. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Motherwell win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
38. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Motherwell win 27%)
39. 60′We said Motherwell at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 2–2 · 25–49–26
40. 60′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 25–49–26
41. 64′We said Motherwell at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 23–53–24
42. 69′We said Motherwell at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 3–2 · 78–18–3
43. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Motherwell · On: Eythor Bjørgolfsson · Off: Sebastian Palmer-Houlden
44. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Motherwell · On: Jardell Kanga · Off: Alex·Lowry
45. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Motherwell · On: Jake Max Girdwood-Reich · Off: Martin Moormann
46. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell
47. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Motherwell win: 39% at kick-off, 3% now
48. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Kilmarnock win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
49. 70′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 79–18–3
50. 70′Greg Kiltie scores for Kilmarnock on 69′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 79–18–3
51. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Motherwell · On: Dylan Levitt · Off: Lukas Fadinger
52. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kilmarnock · On: Ieuan Gwyn Owen · Off: Greg Kiltie
53. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kilmarnock · On: Djenairo Daniels · Off: Tyreece John-Jules
54. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Motherwell · On: Johnny Koutroumbis · Off: Tom Sparrow
55. FTFULL TIME Kilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell
56. FTKilmarnock 3–2 Motherwell · Motherwell win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.