Hibernian v Dundee prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HibernianDrawDundee

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Hibernian 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hibernian are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hibernian 57%, draw 22%, Dundee 21%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Hibernian v DundeeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Hibernian win57%

Draw22%

Dundee win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueEaster Road

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hibernian

Dundee

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dundee	10	+2	14
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Scottish Premiership: Kelsy fires Rangers to emphatic win; Dundee United pip AberdeenThe Guardian · 24 Oct 17:52 · Dundee, Aberdeen

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hibernian winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Hibernian a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hibernian v Dundee~~1.89 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 14~~12 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hibernian win	57%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Dundee win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Hibernian or draw	79%	–	–
Hibernian clean sheet	35%	–	–
Dundee clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.3 5.5 3.0 1 9.9 10.5 5.5 2 9.3 9.8 5.2 3 5.9 6.2 3.3 4 2.8 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hibernian down, Dundee across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hibernian at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dundee away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Hibernian, 1.06 for Dundee. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUN 1–2 HIB · DUN 3–3 HIB · HIB 2–0 DUN · DUN 1–2 HIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept

HIBERNIAN

LLLDLL1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

DUNDEE

DLWWDL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	10	+10	23
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee Utd	10	0	15
5	Dundee	10	+2	14
6	ST Mirren	10	−7	13
7	Falkirk	10	0	12
8	ST Johnstone	10	−4	12
9	Aberdeen	10	−1	11
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	−13	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7