Hibernian v Celtic prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HibernianDrawCeltic

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Celtic 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Celtic are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hibernian 21%, draw 22%, Celtic 57%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Hibernian v CelticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Hibernian win21%

Draw22%

Celtic win57%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueEaster Road

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hibernian

Celtic

8Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Burnley and Wolves must hijack Celtic's Blackburn Rovers transfer planFootball League World · 24 Oct 20:30 · Burnley, Celtic, Blackburn

West Ham have secured Celtic 'steal' for 'instrumental' starFootball League World · 24 Oct 09:00 · West Ham, Celtic

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · celtic winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market58%

Us57%

~~Market~~58%

We make Celtic a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hibernian v Celtic~~1.09 – 1.93

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 24~~12 v 1

~~The market · Celtic win~~58% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Celtic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hibernian win	21%	20%	+1
Draw	22%	22%	0
Celtic win	57%	58%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	61%	−3
Both teams to score	56%	60%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	81%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	40%	−4
Hibernian or draw	43%	42%	+1
Hibernian clean sheet	15%	–	–
Celtic clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.9 9.3 9.0 5.9 2.9 1 5.3 10.2 9.8 6.3 3.1 2 3.0 5.6 5.3 3.4 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hibernian down, Celtic across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hibernian at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Celtic away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Hibernian, 1.93 for Celtic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HIB 1–2 CEL · CEL 1–2 HIB · HIB 1–2 CEL · CEL 0–0 HIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept

HIBERNIAN

LLLDLL1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

CELTIC

WWWLWW3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 7–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	10	+10	23
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee Utd	10	0	15
5	Dundee	10	+2	14
6	ST Mirren	10	−7	13
7	Falkirk	10	0	12
8	ST Johnstone	10	−4	12
9	Aberdeen	10	−1	11
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	−13	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7