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Heart Of Midlothian v ST Mirren

Heart Of Midlothian

5–0Full time

ST Mirren

Premiership · SAT 10 OCT · Tynecastle Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Heart Of Midlothian 5–0 ST Mirren HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Heart Of Midlothian win~~59%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.256

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Heart Of Midlothian win at 59%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Heart Of Midlothian 59% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–24–18
3′KICK-OFF Heart Of Midlothian v ST Mirren
20′20′ and it is 0–0: Eduardo Ageu on the scoresheet for Heart Of Midlothian. 0–0 · 54–28–18
22′⚽ GOAL · 20' Heart Of Midlothian 1–0 ST Mirren · Laurent mendy
24′We said Heart Of Midlothian at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–4
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Calvin Miller · Heart Of Midlothian
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Heart Of Midlothian win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
30′Heart Of Midlothian ahead on 32′ through Calvin Miller. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
34′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Alexander Gogić · ST Mirren
34′⚽ GOAL · 32' Heart Of Midlothian 2–0 ST Mirren · Calvin Miller
37′We said Heart Of Midlothian at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Heart Of Midlothian win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Chris Mochrie · ST Mirren
45′HALF-TIME Heart Of Midlothian 2–0 ST Mirren
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ST Mirren · On: Jake Young · Off: Fraser Taylor
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ST Mirren · On: Luke Thomas · Off: Chris Mochrie
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ST Mirren · On: Liam Donnelly · Off: Ryan Carr
49′SECOND HALF Heart Of Midlothian 2–0 ST Mirren
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Heart Of Midlothian 2–0 ST Mirren · Calvin Miller
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Heart Of Midlothian 3–0 ST Mirren · Calvin Miller
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Heart Of Midlothian 4–0 ST Mirren · Claudio Rafael Soares Braga
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Sabah Kerjota · Off: Calvin Miller
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Oisin McEntee · Off: Eduardo Ageu
61′⚽ GOAL · 20' Heart Of Midlothian 4–0 ST Mirren · Laurent mendy
61′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Calvin Miller · Heart Of Midlothian
61′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Alexander Gogić · ST Mirren
61′⚽ GOAL · 32' Heart Of Midlothian 4–0 ST Mirren · Calvin Miller
61′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Chris Mochrie · ST Mirren
61′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ST Mirren · On: Jake Young · Off: Fraser Taylor
61′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ST Mirren · On: Luke Thomas · Off: Chris Mochrie
61′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ST Mirren · On: Liam Donnelly · Off: Ryan Carr
61′⚽ GOAL · 50' Heart Of Midlothian 4–0 ST Mirren · Calvin Miller
61′⚽ GOAL · 54' Heart Of Midlothian 4–0 ST Mirren · Claudio Rafael Soares Braga (assist Calvin Miller)
61′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Sabah Kerjota · Off: Calvin Miller
61′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Oisin McEntee · Off: Eduardo Ageu
68′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Severin Sabri Guendouz · Heart Of Midlothian
68′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Wouter Vrancken · Heart Of Midlothian
74′SUBSTITUTION · 67' ST Mirren · On: Eseosa Sule · Off: Ismeal Kabia
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Jerome Williams · Off: James wilson
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Severin Sabri Guendouz · Off: Claudio Rafael Soares Braga
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Heart Of Midlothian 4–0 ST Mirren · Josh Mcpake
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Heart Of Midlothian 5–0 ST Mirren · Josh Mcpake
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Stuart Findlay · Off: Josh Mcpake
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' ST Mirren · On: Marcus Fraser · Off: Calvin Ramsay
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Killian Phillips · ST Mirren
FTFULL TIME Heart Of Midlothian 5–0 ST Mirren
FTHeart Of Midlothian 5–0 ST Mirren · Heart Of Midlothian win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Heart Of Midlothian win59%

Draw24%

ST Mirren win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Tynecastle Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Heart Of Midlothian

4-2-3-1

1 B. Reus

23 J. Altena

64 M. Fagan-Walcott

5 J. McCart

18 H. Milne

8 Ageu

78 L. Mendy

7 C. Miller

10 C. Braga

15 J. McPake

21 J. Wilson

Coach · Wouter Vrancken

Substitutes

30 · R. Fulton

17 · S. Findlay

2 · C. Borchgrevink

22 · T. Magnusson

6 · O. McEntee

29 · S. Kerjota

9 · J. Williams

19 · S. Guendouz

74 · R. Mato

ST Mirren

4-2-3-1

1 J. Chapman

47 C. Ramsay

13 A. Gogic

53 H. Fieldson

3 D. John

8 R. Carr

48 P. Nsio

23 C. R. Mochrie

30 F. Taylor

19 I. Kabia

88 K. Phillips

Coach · Craig McLeish

Substitutes

35 · G. Tamosevicius

22 · M. Fraser

6 · L. Jackson

4 · L. Donnelly

10 · S. Ramos

37 · C. McEvoy

20 · J. Young

9 · E. Sule

16 · L. Thomas

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Heart Of Midlothian

4-2-3-1

1 B. Reus

23 J. Altena

64 M. Fagan-Walcott

5 J. McCart

18 H. Milne

8 Ageu

78 L. Mendy

7 C. Miller

10 C. Braga

15 J. McPake

21 J. Wilson

Coach · Wouter Vrancken

Substitutes

30 · R. Fulton

17 · S. Findlay

2 · C. Borchgrevink

22 · T. Magnusson

6 · O. McEntee

29 · S. Kerjota

9 · J. Williams

19 · S. Guendouz

74 · R. Mato

ST Mirren

4-2-3-1

1 J. Chapman

47 C. Ramsay

13 A. Gogic

53 H. Fieldson

3 D. John

8 R. Carr

48 P. Nsio

23 C. R. Mochrie

30 F. Taylor

19 I. Kabia

88 K. Phillips

Coach · Craig McLeish

Substitutes

35 · G. Tamosevicius

22 · M. Fraser

6 · L. Jackson

4 · L. Donnelly

10 · S. Ramos

37 · C. McEvoy

20 · J. Young

9 · E. Sule

16 · L. Thomas

Our number · heart of midlothian winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

59% The market64%

Us59%

~~Market~~64%

We make Heart Of Midlothian a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heart Of Midlothian win	59%	64%	−6
Draw	24%	20%	+4
ST Mirren win	18%	16%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	62%	−15
Both teams to score	46%	57%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	73%	81%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	26%	41%	−16
Heart Of Midlothian or draw	82%	84%	−2
Heart Of Midlothian clean sheet	44%	–	–
ST Mirren clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 7.9 6.3 2.6 1 13.3 11.1 4.6 2 11.6 9.5 3.9 3 6.7 5.5 2.3 4 2.9 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Heart Of Midlothian down, ST Mirren across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,212 Premiership matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 2.59 goals a meeting; 8 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Heart Of Midlothian at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). ST Mirren away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Heart Of Midlothian, 0.83 for ST Mirren. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.59

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 17

~~Both scored~~8 of 17

~~Last meetings~~STM 1–0 HEA · HEA 2–0 STM · STM 2–2 HEA · HEA 3–1 STM

Form · last six in Premiership

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN

WWWWLD4–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

ST MIRREN

WDWLLL1–0 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	7	+10	18
2	Rangers	7	+4	16
3	Heart Of Midlothian	7	+6	13
4	Dundee	7	+2	10
5	ST Mirren	7	−1	10
6	ST Johnstone	7	−1	8
7	Aberdeen	7	−1	8
8	Dundee Utd	7	−2	8
9	Motherwell	7	−2	8
10	Hibernian	7	−3	7
11	Falkirk	7	−3	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	−9	5