Heart Of Midlothian v Rangers prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Heart Of MidlothianDrawRangers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Rangers 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rangers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Heart Of Midlothian 34%, draw 25%, Rangers 41%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Heart Of Midlothian v RangersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Heart Of Midlothian win34%

Draw25%

Rangers win41%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueTynecastle Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Heart Of Midlothian

Rangers

6Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Rangers	10	+10	23
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rangers winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Rangers a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Heart Of Midlothian v Rangers~~1.36 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 3 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 16 v 23~~3 v 2

~~The market · Rangers win~~44% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rangers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heart Of Midlothian win	34%	30%	+4
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Rangers win	41%	44%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Heart Of Midlothian or draw	59%	56%	+3
Heart Of Midlothian clean sheet	22%	–	–
Rangers clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.7 8.5 6.5 3.3 1 7.6 11.6 8.8 4.5 2 5.2 7.8 5.9 3.0 3 2.4 3.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Heart Of Midlothian down, Rangers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Heart Of Midlothian at home: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rangers away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.53 for Rangers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HEA 2–1 RAN · RAN 4–2 HEA · HEA 2–1 RAN · RAN 0–2 HEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 3 Sept

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN

WWLDWL3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 1–7

RANGERS

WWWWDW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	10	+10	23
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee Utd	10	0	15
5	Dundee	10	+2	14
6	ST Mirren	10	−7	13
7	Falkirk	10	0	12
8	ST Johnstone	10	−4	12
9	Aberdeen	10	−1	11
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	−13	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7