Falkirk v Kilmarnock prediction · Premiership

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Falkirk 3–0 Kilmarnock FALKIRK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Falkirk win~~49%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.393

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.363

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Falkirk win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Falkirk 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–27
1′KICK-OFF Falkirk v Kilmarnock
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Falkirk 1–0 Kilmarnock
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Falkirk win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
30′Falkirk ahead on 29′ through an own goal by Cathal McCarthy. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–8
31′We said Falkirk at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–8
39′Jacob Murrell scores for Falkirk on 38′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Falkirk 2–0 Kilmarnock · Jacob Murrell
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Falkirk win: 49% at kick-off, 93% now
40′We said Falkirk at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Falkirk 2–0 Kilmarnock
45′SECOND HALF Falkirk 2–0 Kilmarnock
47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' George Stanger · Kilmarnock
48′We said Falkirk at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kilmarnock · On: Ieuan Gwyn Owen · Off: Greg Kiltie
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kilmarnock · On: Nicky Clescenco · Off: Erik Ring
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kilmarnock · On: Mark O'Hara · Off: Aaron Tshibola
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Jamie Brandon · Kilmarnock
69′An own goal by Kilmarnock's George Stanger on 68′. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′We said Falkirk at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Falkirk 3–0 Kilmarnock · George Stanger (own goal)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Falkirk win: 49% at kick-off, over 99% now
70′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kilmarnock · On: Michael-John Kamson-Kamara · Off: Cathal McCarthy
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kilmarnock · On: Djenairo Daniels · Off: Joe Hugill
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Falkirk · On: Conor McLeod · Off: Ryan Strain Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Falkirk · On: Ben Parkinson · Off: Jacob Murrell
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Falkirk · On: Calvin Fodrey · Off: Owen Eames
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Falkirk · On: Finn Yeats · Off: Finley Frank Barbrook
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Falkirk · On: Craig Sibbald · Off: Deniss Meļņiks
FTFULL TIME Falkirk 3–0 Kilmarnock
FTFalkirk 3–0 Kilmarnock · Falkirk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Falkirk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Falkirk 49%, draw 24%, Kilmarnock 27%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Falkirk v KilmarnockBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Falkirk win49%

Draw24%

Kilmarnock win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueFalkirk Stadium

Line-ups

Falkirk

4-2-3-1

Kilmarnock

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Falkirk

Kilmarnock

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Falkirk	9	−3	9
11	Kilmarnock	9	−10	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Falkirk

4-2-3-1

19 S. Bain

22 R. Strain

15 L. Neilson

5 L. Henderson

3 L. McCann

16 Finley Frank Barbrook

8 B. Spencer

23 E. Ross

42 Owen Eames

21 D. Meļņiks

24 J. Murrell

Coach · J. McGlynn

Substitutes

1 · N. Hogarth

17 · S. Tanser

14 · F. Yeats

99 · C. Fodrey

4 · J. McMillan

10 · C. Sibbald

7 · Ben Parkinson

9 · R. MacIver

27 · C. McLeod

Kilmarnock

4-2-3-1

12 C. Ferrie

2 J. Brandon

4 C. McCarthy

14 G. Stanger

21 M. Schjønning-Larsen

36 A. Tshibola

18 T. Lowery

8 E. Ring

10 T. John-Jules

11 G. Kiltie

9 J. Hugill

Coach · N. McCann

Substitutes

29 · D. Daniels

27 · I. Owen

5 · M. O'Hara

7 · R. McKenzie

20 · N. Cleșcenco

19 · J. Meier

6 · R. Deas

3 · Michael-John Kamson-Kamara

58 · N. Mantl

Our number · falkirk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market51%

Us49%

~~Market~~51%

We make Falkirk a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Falkirk v Kilmarnock~~1.65 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~9 v 11

~~The market · Falkirk win~~51% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Falkirk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Falkirk win	49%	51%	−2
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Kilmarnock win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	58%	−5
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Falkirk or draw	73%	76%	−3
Falkirk clean sheet	32%	–	–
Kilmarnock clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.3 7.1 4.1 1 10.0 11.5 6.6 2.5 2 8.2 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 4.5 5.2 3.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Falkirk down, Kilmarnock across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,224 Premiership matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Falkirk at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kilmarnock away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Falkirk, 1.15 for Kilmarnock. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FAL 5–1 KIL · KIL 0–1 FAL · FAL 3–1 KIL · KIL 3–1 FAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept

FALKIRK

LDWDLW1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

KILMARNOCK

LDWDLW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	9	+6	20
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee	9	+3	14
5	ST Johnstone	9	0	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	−1	12
7	Aberdeen	9	0	11
8	ST Mirren	9	−8	10
9	Falkirk	9	−3	9
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	−10	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7