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Falkirk v Dundee

Falkirk

1–2Full time

Dundee

Premiership · SAT 10 OCT · Falkirk Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Falkirk 1–2 Dundee FALKIRK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Falkirk win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.819

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Falkirk win at 48%.
3′Much as we predicted: Falkirk was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
3′KICK-OFF Falkirk v Dundee
25′7.0 shots for Dundee, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 44–30–26
29′Jacob Murrell scores for Falkirk on 31′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 43–31–26
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Falkirk 1–0 Dundee · Jacob Murrell
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Falkirk 1–1 Dundee · Owen Bevan (assist Drey Wright)
63′⚽ GOAL · 31' Falkirk 1–1 Dundee · Jacob Murrell
63′⚽ GOAL · 52' Falkirk 1–1 Dundee · Owen Bevan (assist Drey Wright)
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Falkirk · On: Finn Yeats · Off: Jacob Murrell
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Falkirk · On: Ben Parkinson · Off: Ben krauhaus
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Falkirk · On: Craig Sibbald · Off: Finley Frank Barbrook
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Falkirk 1–2 Dundee · Owen Bevan
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Falkirk · On: Conor McLeod · Off: Ryan Strain Corrected
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Falkirk 1–2 Dundee · Ashley Hay
FTFULL TIME Falkirk 1–2 Dundee
FTFalkirk 1–2 Dundee · Falkirk win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Falkirk win48%

Draw24%

Dundee win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Falkirk Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Falkirk

4-2-3-1

19 S. Bain

22 R. Strain

15 L. Neilson

5 L. Henderson

3 L. McCann

8 B. Spencer

16 F. Barbrook

23 E. Ross

28 B. Krauhaus

42 O. Eames

24 J. Murrell

Coach · John McGlynn

Substitutes

1 · N. Hogarth

4 · J. McMillan

21 · D. Melniks

14 · F. Yeats

27 · C. McLeod

10 · C. Sibbald

9 · R. MacIver

99 · C. Fodrey

7 · B. Parkinson

Dundee

4-4-2

1 O. Goodman

7 D. Wright

4 R. Astley

5 O. Bevan

12 I. Samuels

27 J. Bevan

28 C. Jones

48 E. Hamilton

14 A. Forrest

11 A. Hay

21 B. Fink

Coach · Steven Pressley

Substitutes

13 · K. O'Hara

26 · J. Wright

6 · M. Akinmboni

2 · B. Halliday

3 · I. Odutayo

77 · A. Harrison

47 · A. Leiper

60 · R. Bland

55 · R. Hughes

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Falkirk

4-2-3-1

19 S. Bain

22 R. Strain

15 L. Neilson

5 L. Henderson

3 L. McCann

8 B. Spencer

16 F. Barbrook

23 E. Ross

28 B. Krauhaus

42 O. Eames

24 J. Murrell

Coach · John McGlynn

Substitutes

1 · N. Hogarth

4 · J. McMillan

21 · D. Melniks

14 · F. Yeats

27 · C. McLeod

10 · C. Sibbald

9 · R. MacIver

99 · C. Fodrey

7 · B. Parkinson

Dundee

4-4-2

1 O. Goodman

7 D. Wright

4 R. Astley

5 O. Bevan

12 I. Samuels

27 J. Bevan

28 C. Jones

48 E. Hamilton

14 A. Forrest

11 A. Hay

21 B. Fink

Coach · Steven Pressley

Substitutes

13 · K. O'Hara

26 · J. Wright

6 · M. Akinmboni

2 · B. Halliday

3 · I. Odutayo

77 · A. Harrison

47 · A. Leiper

60 · R. Bland

55 · R. Hughes

Our number · falkirk winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Falkirk a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · falkirk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Falkirk win	48%	47%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Dundee win	27%	27%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	57%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Falkirk or draw	73%	73%	−1
Falkirk clean sheet	30%	–	–
Dundee clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.9 6.7 4.1 1 9.4 11.4 6.7 2.7 2 7.9 9.4 5.6 2.3 3 4.4 5.2 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Falkirk down, Dundee across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,212 Premiership matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Falkirk at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dundee away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Falkirk, 1.20 for Dundee. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FAL 1–0 DUN · DUN 1–0 FAL · FAL 2–1 DUN

Form · last six in Premiership

FALKIRK

DLLDWD0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

DUNDEE

WWLDLW2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	7	+10	18
2	Rangers	7	+4	16
3	Heart Of Midlothian	7	+6	13
4	Dundee	7	+2	10
5	ST Mirren	7	−1	10
6	ST Johnstone	7	−1	8
7	Aberdeen	7	−1	8
8	Dundee Utd	7	−2	8
9	Motherwell	7	−2	8
10	Hibernian	7	−3	7
11	Falkirk	7	−3	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	−9	5