Falkirk v Celtic prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FalkirkDrawCeltic

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Celtic 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Celtic are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Falkirk 17%, draw 20%, Celtic 64%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Falkirk v CelticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Falkirk win17%

Draw20%

Celtic win64%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueFalkirk Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Falkirk

Celtic

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Burnley and Wolves must hijack Celtic's Blackburn Rovers transfer planFootball League World · 24 Oct 20:30 · Burnley, Celtic, Blackburn

West Ham have secured Celtic 'steal' for 'instrumental' starFootball League World · 24 Oct 09:00 · West Ham, Celtic

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · celtic winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Celtic a 64% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.2, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Falkirk v Celtic~~0.99 – 2.17

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 24~~7 v 1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Falkirk win	17%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Celtic win	64%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Falkirk or draw	36%	–	–
Falkirk clean sheet	12%	–	–
Celtic clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.8%

0123450 4.4 9.2 9.8 7.1 4.0 1 4.3 9.1 9.7 6.9 3.8 2 2.2 4.6 4.8 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Falkirk down, Celtic across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.71 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Falkirk at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Celtic away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Falkirk, 2.17 for Celtic. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.71

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~CEL 2–1 FAL · CEL 3–1 FAL · CEL 2–0 FAL · FAL 0–1 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept

FALKIRK

DWDLWW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0

CELTIC

WWWLWW3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 7–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	10	+10	23
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee Utd	10	0	15
5	Dundee	10	+2	14
6	ST Mirren	10	−7	13
7	Falkirk	10	0	12
8	ST Johnstone	10	−4	12
9	Aberdeen	10	−1	11
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	−13	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7