Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Premiership › Dundee v Rangers

Back
Scotland flag

Dundee v Rangers

Dundee
2–2Full time
Rangers

Premiership · SAT 17 OCT · Dens Park

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31
Dundee 2–2 Rangers RANGERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rangers win60%
The market said68%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.023
The market’s Brier score1.129

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rangers win at 60%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Rangers was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 20–21–59
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dundee v Rangers
  4. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Dujon Sterling · Rangers
  5. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Rangers win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  6. 37′We said Rangers at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 50–27–23
  7. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Dundee 1–0 Rangers
  8. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Rangers win: 60% at kick-off, 23% now
  9. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Dundee win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Rangers win 23%)
  10. 39′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 51–27–22
  11. 40′Bradley·Fink scores for Dundee on 37′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 51–27–21
  12. 42′We said Rangers at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 1–1 · 20–32–48
  13. 42′7 shots for Dundee, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 20–32–48
  14. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Dundee 1–1 Rangers
  15. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Rangers win: 60% at kick-off, 48% now
  16. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Rangers win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Dundee win 20%)
  17. 43′42′: Badredine Bouanani on the scoresheet for Rangers, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 20–33–48
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Dundee 1–1 Rangers
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Dundee 1–1 Rangers
  20. 50′We said Rangers at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 19–37–44
  21. 87′Callum Jones scores for Dundee on 69′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 5–86–9
  22. 87′⚽ GOAL · 60' Dundee 2–2 Rangers · Nicolas Raskin (assist Dan Neil)
  23. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dundee · On: Alfie Harrison · Off: Joseph Bevan
  24. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Ethan Hamilton · Dundee
  25. 87′⚽ GOAL · 69' Dundee 2–2 Rangers · Callum Jones
  26. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rangers · On: Findlay Curtis · Off: Badredine Bouanani
  27. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rangers · On: Kevin Kelsy · Off: Min-su Kim
  28. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Dujon Sterling · Rangers
  29. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Ashley Hay · Dundee
  30. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Nicolas Raskin · Rangers
  31. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Rangers win: 60% at kick-off, 9% now
  32. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Rangers win 9%)
  33. 89′We said Rangers at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 4–89–7
  34. 90′17 shots for Rangers, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 3–90–6
  35. 90′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 3–90–6
  36. 90′Full time, 2–2. We called Rangers at 60% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  37. 92′We said Rangers at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 2–93–4
  38. 93′Rangers have had 20 attempts to 9 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 2–95–3
  39. FTFULL TIME Dundee 2–2 Rangers
  40. FTDundee 2–2 Rangers · Rangers win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rangers are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dundee 20%, draw 21%, Rangers 60%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Dundee v RangersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dundee win20%
Draw21%
Rangers win60%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueDens Park

Line-ups

Dundee

4-4-2

Rangers

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dundee

Rangers

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Rangers8+619
4Dundee8+313

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dundee

4-4-2

1 O. Goodman

7 D. Wright

4 R. Astley

5 O. Bevan

12 I. Samuels

27 J. Bevan

28 C. Jones

48 E. Hamilton

14 A. Forrest

11 A. Hay

21 B. Fink

Coach · Steven Pressley

Substitutes

13 · K. O'Hara

26 · J. Wright

6 · M. Akinmboni

2 · B. Halliday

3 · I. Odutayo

17 · Z. Besir

8 · R. Finnigan

77 · A. Harrison

18 · C. Reilly

Rangers

4-1-4-1

1 I. Pandur

21 D. Sterling

37 E. Fernandez

24 O. Makhanya

29 J. Penrice

43 N. Raskin

26 B. Bouanani

10 M. Kim

6 D. Neil

23 D. Gassama

20 R. Naderi

Coach · Derek McInnes

Substitutes

31 · L. Kelly

4 · B. Godfrey

25 · T. Rommens

18 · K. Nedeljkovic

22 · V. Dragojevic

42 · T. Chukwuani

52 · F. Curtis

19 · K. Kelsy

28 · B. Miovski

Our number · rangers winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:37 · locked at kick-off
60% The market68%
Us60%
Market68%

We make Rangers a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dundee v Rangers1.11 – 2.08
Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 22 AugW3 D1 L2 · W6 D0 L0
Table places · points 13 v 194 v 2
The market · Rangers win68% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 11 OCT 03:5917 OCT 19:16
Our probability · Rangers win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. The market has gone from 71% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dundee win20%13%+7
Draw21%19%+2
Rangers win60%68%−8
Over 2.5 goals62%59%+3
Both teams to score58%52%+6
Over 1.5 goals82%80%+2
Over 3.5 goals39%38%+1
Dundee or draw40%32%+8
Dundee clean sheet13%––
Rangers clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.7%
0123450 4.2 8.6 8.9 6.2 3.3 1 4.7 9.5 9.7 6.7 3.5 2 2.6 5.3 5.4 3.7 3 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dundee down, Rangers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.20
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsRAN 3–0 DUN · DUN 0–3 RAN · RAN 1–1 DUN · DUN 3–4 RAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 22 Aug

DUNDEE

WLDLWW2–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

RANGERS

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Celtic8+1221
2Rangers8+619
3Heart Of Midlothian8+1116
4Dundee8+313
5ST Johnstone9012
6Dundee Utd9−112
7Aberdeen9011
8ST Mirren9−810
9Falkirk9−39
10Motherwell9−58
11Kilmarnock9−108
12Hibernian9−57

The competition's standings before kick-off.