Dundee v Kilmarnock prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DundeeDrawKilmarnock

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Dundee 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dundee are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dundee 48%, draw 24%, Kilmarnock 29%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Dundee v KilmarnockBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Dundee win48%

Draw24%

Kilmarnock win29%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueDens Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dundee

Kilmarnock

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dundee	10	+2	14
11	Kilmarnock	10	−13	8

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Scottish Premiership: Kelsy fires Rangers to emphatic win; Dundee United pip AberdeenThe Guardian · 24 Oct 17:52 · Dundee, Aberdeen

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dundee winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make Dundee a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dundee v Kilmarnock~~1.69 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 8~~5 v 11

~~The market · Dundee win~~49% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dundee win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dundee win	48%	49%	−1
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Kilmarnock win	29%	26%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	57%	−1
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	37%	−3
Dundee or draw	71%	74%	−3
Dundee clean sheet	29%	–	–
Kilmarnock clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.3 6.6 4.2 1 8.8 11.1 7.0 2.9 2 7.5 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 4.2 5.3 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dundee down, Kilmarnock across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dundee at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kilmarnock away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Dundee, 1.26 for Kilmarnock. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KIL 3–1 DUN · KIL 2–2 DUN · KIL 1–2 DUN · DUN 2–1 KIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept

DUNDEE

DLWWDL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

KILMARNOCK

DWDLWL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	10	+10	23
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee Utd	10	0	15
5	Dundee	10	+2	14
6	ST Mirren	10	−7	13
7	Falkirk	10	0	12
8	ST Johnstone	10	−4	12
9	Aberdeen	10	−1	11
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	10	−13	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7