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Dundee Utd v Hibernian

Dundee Utd

1–0Full time

Hibernian

Premiership · SAT 10 OCT · CalForth Construction Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Dundee Utd 1–0 Hibernian HIBERNIAN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hibernian win~~38%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.629

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.637

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hibernian win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Hibernian 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
2′KICK-OFF Dundee Utd v Hibernian
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Miguel Changa Chaiwa · Hibernian
36′Dundee Utd ahead on 35′ through Daniel Bennie. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Dundee Utd 1–0 Hibernian · Daniel Bennie (assist Lyall Cameron)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Hibernian win: 38% at kick-off, 11% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Dundee Utd win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Hibernian win 11%)
40′We said Hibernian at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 68–22–10
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Michael Forbes · Dundee Utd
43′We said Hibernian at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
45′SECOND HALF Dundee Utd 1–0 Hibernian
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Hibernian win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
53′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Hibernian · On: Rabbi Matondo · Off: Owen Elding Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Hibernian · On: Martin Boyle · Off: Thibault Klidjé Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Hibernian · On: Rabbi Matondo · Off: Owen Elding Corrected
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Zidane Iqbal · Dundee Utd
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Dundee Utd · On: Zachary Sapsford · Off: Daniel Bennie Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Dundee Utd · On: Dario Naamo · Off: Idjessi Metsoko Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Dundee Utd · On: Lachlan Rose · Off: Joshua James Rawlins Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Dundee Utd · On: Neil Farrugia · Off: Lyall Cameron Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Dundee Utd · On: abdoulaye yoro · Off: Jesse Randall Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hibernian · On: Jacob Devaney · Off: Miguel Changa Chaiwa Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Hibernian · On: Nicky Cadden · Off: Jack Iredale Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Dylan Tait · Dundee Utd
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Dundee Utd
84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Jacob Devaney · Hibernian
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' abdoulaye yoro · Dundee Utd
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Martin Boyle · Hibernian
FTFULL TIME Dundee Utd 1–0 Hibernian
FTDundee Utd 1–0 Hibernian · Hibernian win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dundee Utd win36%

Draw26%

Hibernian win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Celtic decide against offering Bakayoko deal - gossipBBC Sport · 7 hours ago · Celtic, Hibernian

'Intense' talks convinced Reedijk over Hibs jobBBC Sport · 1 day ago · Hibernian

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · CalForth Construction Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Dundee Utd

4-3-3

1 J. Walton

23 J. Rawlins

3 B. Esselink

18 M. Forbes

19 K. Ciubotaru

10 D. Tait

16 L. Cameron

14 Z. Iqbal

21 J. Randall

93 I. Metsoko

77 D. Bennie

Coach · Jim Goodwin

Substitutes

30 · J. Amissah

6 · R. Graham

4 · I. Iovu

22 · D. Naamo

8 · P. Camara

26 · A. Yoro

20 · N. Farrugia

15 · L. Rose

9 · Z. Sapsford

Hibernian

4-2-3-1

1 R. Sallinger

25 F. Passlack

6 J. Kerr

5 M. Ivezic

15 J. Iredale

14 M. Chaiwa

8 J. Mulligan

7 O. Elding

23 C. Wright

18 T. Klidje

22 A. Suto

Coach · Marink Reedijk

Substitutes

35 · F. Owens

4 · G. Hanley

11 · J. Newell

19 · N. Cadden

47 · A. Abdulai

24 · J. Devaney

39 · R. Matondo

9 · N. Lowe

10 · M. Boyle

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dundee Utd

4-3-3

1 J. Walton

23 J. Rawlins

3 B. Esselink

18 M. Forbes

19 K. Ciubotaru

10 D. Tait

16 L. Cameron

14 Z. Iqbal

21 J. Randall

93 I. Metsoko

77 D. Bennie

Coach · Jim Goodwin

Substitutes

30 · J. Amissah

6 · R. Graham

4 · I. Iovu

22 · D. Naamo

8 · P. Camara

26 · A. Yoro

20 · N. Farrugia

15 · L. Rose

9 · Z. Sapsford

Hibernian

4-2-3-1

1 R. Sallinger

25 F. Passlack

6 J. Kerr

5 M. Ivezic

15 J. Iredale

14 M. Chaiwa

8 J. Mulligan

7 O. Elding

23 C. Wright

18 T. Klidje

22 A. Suto

Coach · Marink Reedijk

Substitutes

35 · F. Owens

4 · G. Hanley

11 · J. Newell

19 · N. Cadden

47 · A. Abdulai

24 · J. Devaney

39 · R. Matondo

9 · N. Lowe

10 · M. Boyle

Our number · hibernian winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

38% The market38%

Us38%

~~Market~~38%

We make Hibernian a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dundee Utd win	36%	35%	0
Draw	26%	27%	0
Hibernian win	38%	38%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	58%	−8
Both teams to score	54%	62%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	37%	−9
Dundee Utd or draw	62%	62%	0
Dundee Utd clean sheet	26%	–	–
Hibernian clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.2 9.4 6.4 2.9 1 9.0 12.4 8.3 3.8 2 5.9 8.0 5.4 2.5 3 2.6 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dundee Utd down, Hibernian across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,212 Premiership matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.46 goals a meeting; 9 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dundee Utd at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hibernian away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Dundee Utd, 1.36 for Hibernian. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.46

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 13

~~Both scored~~11 of 13

~~Last meetings~~HIB 3–2 DUN · DUN 1–1 HIB · HIB 3–3 DUN · HIB 3–1 DUN

Form · last six in Premiership

DUNDEE UTD

LLWLDW0–4 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–0

HIBERNIAN

WWLLLD2–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	7	+10	18
2	Rangers	7	+4	16
3	Heart Of Midlothian	7	+6	13
4	Dundee	7	+2	10
5	ST Mirren	7	−1	10
6	ST Johnstone	7	−1	8
7	Aberdeen	7	−1	8
8	Dundee Utd	7	−2	8
9	Motherwell	7	−2	8
10	Hibernian	7	−3	7
11	Falkirk	7	−3	6
12	Kilmarnock	7	−9	5