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Dundee Utd v Aberdeen

Dundee Utd
3–2Full time
Aberdeen

Premiership · SAT 24 OCT · CalForth Construction Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Dundee Utd 3–2 Aberdeen DUNDEE UTD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dundee Utd win43%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.489
The market’s Brier score0.452

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dundee Utd win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Dundee Utd was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dundee Utd v Aberdeen
  4. 15′14′: Zidane Iqbal on the scoresheet for Dundee Utd. 0–0 · 41–30–30
  5. 15′We published Dundee Utd at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
  6. 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Dundee Utd 1–0 Aberdeen · Zidane Iqbal
  7. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
  8. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Brad Lyons · Aberdeen
  9. 26′Aberdeen level it on 25′ through Nesta Guinness-Walker. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–33–29
  10. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Dundee Utd 1–1 Aberdeen
  11. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 39% now
  12. 28′27′: Dylan Tait on the scoresheet for Dundee Utd. 1–1 · 38–33–28
  13. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Dundee Utd 2–1 Aberdeen · Dylan Tait
  14. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
  15. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 72–19–9
  16. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
  17. 45′HALF-TIME Dundee Utd 2–1 Aberdeen
  18. 45′SECOND HALF Dundee Utd 2–1 Aberdeen
  19. 46′We published Dundee Utd at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
  20. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Aberdeen · On: Lewis Smith · Off: Afeez Aremu Olalekan
  21. 55′We said Dundee Utd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 2–2 · 30–47–23
  22. 55′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 30–47–23
  23. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Dundee Utd 2–2 Aberdeen
  24. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 30% now
  25. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Dundee Utd win 77%)
  26. 57′We said Dundee Utd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–48–22
  27. 57′56′: Connor Patrick Ronan on the scoresheet for Aberdeen, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 29–48–22
  28. 57′Aberdeen have had 14 attempts to 9 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 29–48–22
  29. 61′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 79–18–4
  30. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Dundee Utd 3–2 Aberdeen
  31. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 79% now
  32. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Dundee Utd win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 52%)
  33. 63′We published Dundee Utd at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 3–2 · 80–17–3
  34. 63′Dundee Utd ahead on 62′ through Zachary Sapsford. 3–2. 3–2 · 80–17–3
  35. 63′17 shots for Aberdeen, 9 the other way, and they still trail 3–2. 3–2 · 80–17–3
  36. 64′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' Dundee Utd
  37. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 25% now
  38. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Dundee Utd win 80%)
  39. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Dundee Utd · On: Neil Farrugia · Off: Daniel Bennie
  40. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Aberdeen · On: Toyosi Olusanya · Off: Ayoub Mouloua
  41. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
  42. 73′We published Dundee Utd at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–2 · 85–14–2
  43. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Dundee Utd 3–2 Aberdeen
  44. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 85% now
  45. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Dundee Utd win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 66%)
  46. 74′Dundee Utd ahead on 72′ through Zachary Sapsford. 3–2. 3–2 · 85–13–1
  47. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 85% now
  48. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Dundee Utd · On: Lachlan Rose · Off: Zachary Sapsford
  49. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Dundee Utd · On: abdoulaye yoro · Off: Lyall Cameron
  50. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Aberdeen · On: Hicham Mahou · Off: Stuart Armstrong
  51. 80′We published Dundee Utd at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 3–2 · 90–10–1
  52. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Dundee Utd win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  53. 87′We published Dundee Utd at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  54. 94′Aberdeen have had 20 attempts to 13 and it is still 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
  55. FTFULL TIME Dundee Utd 3–2 Aberdeen
  56. FTDundee Utd 3–2 Aberdeen · Dundee Utd win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dundee Utd are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dundee Utd 43%, draw 27%, Aberdeen 31%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Dundee Utd v AberdeenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dundee Utd win43%
Draw27%
Aberdeen win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueCalForth Construction Arena

Line-ups

Dundee Utd

4-3-3

Aberdeen

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dundee Utd

Aberdeen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Dundee Utd9−112
7Aberdeen9011

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dundee Utd

4-3-3

1 J. Walton

23 J. Rawlins

3 B. Esselink

18 M. Forbes

19 K. Ciubotaru

14 Zidane Iqbal

10 D. Tait

16 L. Cameron

21 J. Randall

9 Z. Sapsford

77 D. Bennie

Coach · J. Goodwin

Substitutes

30 · J. Amissah

8 · Panutche Camará

20 · N. Farrugia

6 · R. Graham

4 · I. Iovu

93 · I. Metsoko

22 · D. Naamo

15 · L. Rose

26 · Abdoulaye Yoro

Aberdeen

5-3-2

27 M. Müller

28 C. Cadden

22 J. Milne

25 C. Ronan

21 G. Molloy

24 N. Guinness-Walker

8 B. Lyons

32 A. Aremu

17 S. Armstrong

9 A. Mouloua

15 K. Nisbet

Coach · S. Robinson

Substitutes

10 · A. Briedl

2 · N. Devlin

77 · E. Gyamfi

30 · D. Klein

14 · H. Mahou

31 · M. Ntelo

20 · T. Olusanya

11 · Lewis Smith

Our number · dundee utd winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
43% The market45%
Us43%
Market45%

We make Dundee Utd a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dundee Utd v Aberdeen1.40 – 1.13
Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 29 AugW3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 12 v 116 v 7
The market · Dundee Utd win45% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:16
Our probability · Dundee Utd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dundee Utd win43%45%−2
Draw27%27%0
Aberdeen win31%28%+3
Over 2.5 goals46%55%−9
Both teams to score51%58%−7
Over 1.5 goals72%77%−5
Over 3.5 goals25%33%−8
Dundee Utd or draw69%72%−3
Dundee Utd clean sheet32%––
Aberdeen clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%
0123450 8.0 9.0 5.1 1 11.1 12.6 7.1 2.7 2 7.8 8.8 5.0 3 3.6 4.1 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dundee Utd down, Aberdeen across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.53 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsABE 2–0 DUN · DUN 0–0 ABE · ABE 1–1 DUN · DUN 2–0 ABE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 29 Aug

DUNDEE UTD

WLDWWD4–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

ABERDEEN

LDWDLW0–3 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Celtic9+1824
2Rangers9+620
3Heart Of Midlothian9+516
4Dundee9+314
5ST Johnstone9012
6Dundee Utd9−112
7Aberdeen9011
8ST Mirren9−810
9Falkirk9−39
10Motherwell9−58
11Kilmarnock9−108
12Hibernian9−57

The competition's standings before kick-off.