Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian prediction · Premiership

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Celtic 7–1 Heart Of Midlothian CELTIC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Celtic win~~64%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.195

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.242

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Celtic win at 64%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Celtic 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–16
2′KICK-OFF Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian
7′Celtic ahead on 7′ through Kieran Tierney. 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–5
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Celtic 1–0 Heart Of Midlothian · Kieran Tierney
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Celtic win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
8′We said Celtic at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–5
11′Benjamin Nygren scores for Celtic on 10′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
11′We said Celtic at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Celtic 2–0 Heart Of Midlothian · Benjamin Nygren
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Celtic win: 64% at kick-off, 95% now
36′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Calvin Miller · Heart Of Midlothian
37′36′: Callum Osmand on the scoresheet for Celtic, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Celtic 3–0 Heart Of Midlothian · Callum Osmand
39′We said Celtic at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Celtic 4–0 Heart Of Midlothian
40′Celtic ahead on 38′ through Callum Osmand. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
40′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
42′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 99–1–0
42′Laurent mendy scores for Heart Of Midlothian on 41′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Celtic 4–1 Heart Of Midlothian
45′HALF-TIME Celtic 5–1 Heart Of Midlothian
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Celtic · On: Jota · Off: Callum Osmand
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Tomas Bent Magnusson · Off: Oisin McEntee
46′SECOND HALF Celtic 5–1 Heart Of Midlothian
47′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Celtic 5–1 Heart Of Midlothian
48′45′: Jamie McCart puts it into the Heart Of Midlothian net, and it is 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
50′7 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Jota · Celtic
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Celtic 6–1 Heart Of Midlothian
51′Celtic ahead on 49′ through Camilo Duran. 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Mika Baur · Celtic
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Colby Donovan · Celtic
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Rogers Mato · Off: Calvin Miller
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Sabah Kerjota · Off: Josh Mcpake
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Celtic · On: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain · Off: Callum McGregor
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Celtic · On: Landon Emenalo · Off: Kieran Tierney
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Celtic · On: Kasper Hogh · Off: Camilo Duran
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Celtic · On: James Forrest · Off: Haissem Hassan
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Heart Of Midlothian · On: Amadou Ba-Sy · Off: Claudio Rafael Soares Braga
83′That is 8, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 7–1 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Celtic 7–1 Heart Of Midlothian
84′Benjamin Nygren scores for Celtic on 83′ — 7–1. 7–1 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Heart Of Midlothian · On: James wilson · Off: Severin Sabri Guendouz
FTFULL TIME Celtic 7–1 Heart Of Midlothian
FTCeltic 7–1 Heart Of Midlothian · Celtic win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Celtic are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Celtic 64%, draw 20%, Heart Of Midlothian 16%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Celtic v Heart Of MidlothianBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Celtic win64%

Draw20%

Heart Of Midlothian win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueCeltic Park

Line-ups

Celtic

4-2-3-1

Heart Of Midlothian

4-4-1-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celtic

Heart Of Midlothian

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Blackburn Rovers hit big stumbling block in talks with Celtic-linked playerFootball League World · 18 Oct 10:39 · Blackburn, Celtic

Celtic could return for Blackburn Rovers star in January - this is how much he may costFootball League World · 18 Oct 08:45 · Celtic, Blackburn

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Celtic

4-2-3-1

1 V. Sinisalo

51 C. Donovan

47 D. Murray

5 L. Scales

63 K. Tierney

42 C. McGregor

22 M. Baur

23 H. Hassan

8 B. Nygren

19 C. Osmand

11 C. Duran

Coach · Martin O'Neill

Substitutes

26 · S. Johnstone

6 · A. Trusty

21 · A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

18 · O. Sorensen

12 · L. Emenalo

49 · J. Forrest

7 · Jota

9 · K. Hogh

29 · S. Mheuka

Heart Of Midlothian

4-4-1-1

1 B. Reus

23 J. Altena

64 M. Fagan-Walcott

5 J. McCart

3 S. Kingsley

7 C. Miller

78 L. Mendy

6 O. McEntee

15 J. McPake

19 S. Guendouz

10 C. Braga

Coach · Wouter Vrancken

Substitutes

30 · R. Fulton

17 · S. Findlay

18 · H. Milne

22 · T. Magnusson

29 · S. Kerjota

9 · J. Williams

77 · A. Ba-Sy

74 · R. Mato

21 · J. Wilson

Our number · celtic winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market60%

Us64%

~~Market~~60%

We make Celtic a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian~~2.12 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 16~~1 v 3

~~The market · Celtic win~~60% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Celtic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celtic win	64%	60%	+4
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Heart Of Midlothian win	16%	19%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	59%	63%	−4
Both teams to score	54%	59%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	83%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	43%	−6
Celtic or draw	84%	81%	+3
Celtic clean sheet	39%	–	–
Heart Of Midlothian clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 4.7 4.5 2.2 1 9.8 9.3 4.5 2 10.3 9.7 4.6 3 7.4 6.9 3.3 4 4.0 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Celtic down, Heart Of Midlothian across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,223 Premiership matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Celtic at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Heart Of Midlothian away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Celtic, 0.95 for Heart Of Midlothian. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CEL 3–1 HEA · HEA 2–2 CEL · CEL 1–2 HEA · HEA 3–1 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 29 Aug

CELTIC

WWWWLW2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN

WWWLDW2–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	8	+12	21
2	Rangers	9	+6	20
3	Heart Of Midlothian	8	+11	16
4	Dundee	9	+3	14
5	ST Johnstone	9	0	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	−1	12
7	Aberdeen	9	0	11
8	ST Mirren	9	−8	10
9	Falkirk	9	−3	9
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	−10	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7