Celtic v Dundee Utd prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CelticDrawDundee Utd

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Celtic 80%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Celtic are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Celtic 80%, draw 13%, Dundee Utd 7%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Celtic v Dundee UtdBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Celtic win80%

Draw13%

Dundee Utd win7%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCeltic Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celtic

Dundee Utd

6Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Burnley and Wolves must hijack Celtic's Blackburn Rovers transfer planFootball League World · 24 Oct 20:30 · Celtic

West Ham have secured Celtic 'steal' for 'instrumental' starFootball League World · 24 Oct 09:00 · Celtic

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · celtic winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

80% The market74%

Us80%

~~Market~~74%

We make Celtic an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Celtic v Dundee Utd~~2.81 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 24 v 12~~1 v 6

~~The market · Celtic win~~74% · ours 80%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Celtic win The market, margin stripped

Published at 79%, 80% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celtic win	80%	74%	+6
Draw	13%	16%	−3
Dundee Utd win	7%	10%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Celtic or draw	93%	90%	+3
Celtic clean sheet	48%	–	–
Dundee Utd clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.3%

0123450 2.9 2.2 1 8.1 6.0 2.3 2 11.3 8.3 3.1 3 10.5 7.7 2.9 4 7.5 5.4 5 4.3 3.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Celtic down, Dundee Utd across0–5 goals a side shown (93.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Celtic at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dundee Utd away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.81 goals for Celtic, 0.74 for Dundee Utd. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUN 0–4 CEL · DUN 2–0 CEL · CEL 4–0 DUN · DUN 2–1 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 2 Sept

CELTIC

WWWLWW3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 7–1

DUNDEE UTD

LDWWDW0–3 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	9	+6	20
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee	9	+3	14
5	ST Johnstone	9	0	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	−1	12
7	Aberdeen	9	0	11
8	ST Mirren	9	−8	10
9	Falkirk	9	−3	9
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	−10	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7