Aberdeen v ST Mirren prediction · Premiership

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Aberdeen 3–1 ST Mirren ABERDEEN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aberdeen win~~46%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.443

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.343

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aberdeen win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aberdeen was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
1′KICK-OFF Aberdeen v ST Mirren
2′Aberdeen find the net on 2′. 0–0 · 45–27–27
3′We published Aberdeen at 46%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–10
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Aberdeen 1–0 ST Mirren
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Aberdeen win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
8′2′: Brad Lyons on the scoresheet for Aberdeen, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
8′We published Aberdeen at 46%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
28′We published Aberdeen at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
33′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Ryan Carr · ST Mirren
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Aberdeen win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
43′Much as we predicted: Aberdeen was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 1–1 · 36–41–23
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Aberdeen 1–1 ST Mirren
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Aberdeen win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Aberdeen win 36%)
45′ST Mirren level it on 42′ through Eseosa Sule. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–42–23
45′HALF-TIME Aberdeen 1–1 ST Mirren
45′SECOND HALF Aberdeen 1–1 ST Mirren
47′We said Aberdeen at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Aberdeen · On: Stuart Armstrong · Off: Connor Patrick Ronan
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Aberdeen · On: Tony Yogane · Off: Brad Lyons
58′We said Aberdeen at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–51–20
58′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Paul Nsio · ST Mirren
60′Kevin Nisbet scores for Aberdeen on 58′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–16–3
60′We published Aberdeen at 46%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–3
60′PENALTY · 58' Aberdeen
60′⚽ GOAL · 58' Aberdeen 2–1 ST Mirren · Kevin Nisbet
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Aberdeen win: 46% at kick-off, 81% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Aberdeen win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
61′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 81–16–3
61′PENALTY MISSED · 58' Kevin Nisbet · Aberdeen
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' ST Mirren · On: Samuel Antonio Ramos Linares · Off: Luke Thomas
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' ST Mirren · On: Fraser Taylor · Off: Paul Nsio
70′We published Aberdeen at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Aberdeen · On: Ayoub Mouloua · Off: Toyosi Olusanya
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Aberdeen win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
73′Ayoub Mouloua scores for Aberdeen on 72′. 2–1 · 86–12–1
74′We published Aberdeen at 46%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
74′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 72' Aberdeen 3–1 ST Mirren · Ayoub Mouloua (assist Afeez Aremu Olalekan)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Aberdeen win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' ST Mirren · On: Jake Young · Off: Eseosa Sule
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Aberdeen · On: Emmanuel Gyamfi · Off: Lewis Smith
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Stuart Armstrong · Aberdeen
80′We published Aberdeen at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Aberdeen · On: Findlay Marshall · Off: Kevin Nisbet
FTFULL TIME Aberdeen 3–1 ST Mirren
FTAberdeen 3–1 ST Mirren · Aberdeen win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aberdeen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aberdeen 46%, draw 27%, ST Mirren 27%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Aberdeen v ST MirrenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aberdeen win46%

Draw27%

ST Mirren win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePittodrie Stadium

Line-ups

Aberdeen

4-2-3-1

ST Mirren

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aberdeen

ST Mirren

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	ST Mirren	8	−6	10
8	Aberdeen	8	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Aberdeen

4-2-3-1

27 M. Muller

28 C. Cadden

23 L. Mayo

5 M. Knoester

24 N. Guinness-Walker

8 B. Lyons

32 A. Aremu

11 L. Smith

25 C. Ronan

20 T. Olusanya

15 K. Nisbet

Coach · Stephen Robinson

Substitutes

30 · D. Klein

26 · D. Happe

22 · J. Milne

17 · S. Armstrong

21 · G. Molloy

77 · E. Gyamfi

40 · F. Marshall

7 · T. Yogane

9 · A. Mouloua

ST Mirren

4-4-2

1 J. Chapman

47 C. Ramsay

13 A. Gogic

22 M. Fraser

3 D. John

16 L. Thomas

8 R. Carr

48 P. Nsio

19 I. Kabia

9 E. Sule

88 K. Phillips

Coach · Craig McLeish

Substitutes

35 · G. Tamosevicius

53 · H. Fieldson

6 · L. Jackson

4 · L. Donnelly

23 · C. R. Mochrie

30 · F. Taylor

10 · S. Ramos

37 · C. McEvoy

20 · J. Young

Our number · aberdeen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market52%

Us46%

~~Market~~52%

We make Aberdeen a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aberdeen v ST Mirren~~1.38 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~8 v 7

~~The market · Aberdeen win~~52% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aberdeen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aberdeen win	46%	52%	−6
Draw	27%	25%	+2
ST Mirren win	27%	23%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	43%	54%	−11
Both teams to score	47%	55%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	76%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	22%	32%	−10
Aberdeen or draw	73%	77%	−4
Aberdeen clean sheet	37%	–	–
ST Mirren clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 9.3 9.3 4.6 1 12.8 12.7 6.4 2.1 2 8.8 8.8 4.4 3 4.1 4.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aberdeen down, ST Mirren across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,218 Premiership matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aberdeen at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). ST Mirren away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Aberdeen, 1.00 for ST Mirren. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ABE 0–2 STM · STM 2–0 ABE · ABE 3–3 STM · STM 0–1 ABE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 30 Aug

ABERDEEN

LLDWDL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

ST MIRREN

DWLLLL3–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	8	+12	21
2	Rangers	8	+6	19
3	Heart Of Midlothian	8	+11	16
4	Dundee	8	+3	13
5	ST Johnstone	8	0	11
6	Dundee Utd	8	−1	11
7	ST Mirren	8	−6	10
8	Aberdeen	8	−2	8
9	Motherwell	8	−4	8
10	Hibernian	8	−4	7
11	Falkirk	8	−4	6
12	Kilmarnock	8	−11	5