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Aberdeen v ST Johnstone

Aberdeen

0–1Full time

ST Johnstone

Premiership · SUN 11 OCT · Pittodrie Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Aberdeen 0–1 ST Johnstone ABERDEEN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aberdeen win~~50%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.902

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.786

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aberdeen win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aberdeen was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–24
2′Much as we predicted: Aberdeen was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–27–24
15′14′ and it is 0–1: Josh Fowler on the scoresheet for ST Johnstone. 0–1 · 21–26–53
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' ST Johnstone win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Aberdeen win 21%)
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 48% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Aberdeen win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was ST Johnstone win 23%)
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 21% now
16′14′ and it is 0–1: Josh Fowler on the scoresheet for ST Johnstone. 0–1 · 21–26–53
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 21% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' ST Johnstone win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Aberdeen win 21%)
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 48% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Aberdeen win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was ST Johnstone win 23%)
17′We said Aberdeen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–26–53
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 21% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 21% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 21% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
22′We said Aberdeen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–54
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 21% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
23′We said Aberdeen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 17–27–57
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 16–27–57
35′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Aberdeen · On: Lewis Smith · Off: Ayoub Mouloua
39′We said Aberdeen at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
45′SECOND HALF Aberdeen 0–1 ST Johnstone
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 13% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' ST Johnstone win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Aberdeen win 13%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Aberdeen win: 50% at kick-off, 13% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' ST Johnstone win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Aberdeen win 13%)
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' ST Johnstone · On: Joel Cotterill · Off: Ruari Paton
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Aberdeen · On: Stuart Armstrong · Off: Findlay Marshall Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Aberdeen · On: Toyosi Olusanya · Off: Connor Patrick Ronan Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' ST Johnstone · On: Taylor Steven · Off: Matty Todd
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Aberdeen · On: Hicham Mahou · Off: Nesta Guinness-Walker
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' ST Johnstone · On: Josh Campbell · Off: Sam Stanton
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' ST Johnstone · On: Jamie Gullan · Off: Josh Fowler
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Aberdeen · On: Afeez Aremu Olalekan · Off: Christopher Cadden
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' ST Johnstone · On: Božo Mikulić · Off: Daniel Finlayson
FTFULL TIME Aberdeen 0–1 ST Johnstone
FTAberdeen 0–1 ST Johnstone · Aberdeen win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Aberdeen win50%

Draw26%

ST Johnstone win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenuePittodrie Stadium

Line-ups

Aberdeen

5-3-2

ST Johnstone

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Aberdeen

ST Johnstone

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	ST Johnstone	7	−1	8
8	Aberdeen	7	−1	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Aberdeen

5-3-2

27 M. Muller

28 C. Cadden

22 J. Milne

5 M. Knoester

21 G. Molloy

24 N. Guinness-Walker

8 B. Lyons

40 F. Marshall

25 C. Ronan

9 A. Mouloua

15 K. Nisbet

Coach · Stephen Robinson

Substitutes

30 · D. Klein

23 · L. Mayo

26 · D. Happe

17 · S. Armstrong

11 · L. Smith

32 · A. Aremu

7 · T. Yogane

14 · H. Mahou

20 · T. Olusanya

ST Johnstone

3-4-2-1

1 T. Steward

33 L. Smith

19 D. Finlayson

14 M. Foulds

26 M. Todd

42 R. McAlear

8 J. Holt

2 E. Alic

11 S. Stanton

99 R. Paton

9 J. Fowler

Coach · Simo Valakari

Substitutes

20 · R. Sinclair

6 · B. Mikulic

32 · J. Campbell

22 · D. Schmidt

30 · J. Cotterill

23 · L. Chalmers

7 · T. Steven

10 · J. Gullan

18 · K. Fotheringham

Our number · aberdeen winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

50% The market43%

Us50%

~~Market~~43%

We make Aberdeen a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · aberdeen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aberdeen win	50%	43%	+7
Draw	26%	29%	−2
ST Johnstone win	24%	28%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	44%	49%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
Aberdeen or draw	76%	72%	+4
Aberdeen clean sheet	40%	–	–
ST Johnstone clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 9.0 8.2 3.9 1 13.2 12.3 5.7 2 9.8 9.1 4.2 3 4.9 4.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aberdeen down, ST Johnstone across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,216 Premiership matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 1.36 goals a meeting; 1 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aberdeen at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). ST Johnstone away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Aberdeen, 0.93 for ST Johnstone. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:37. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.36

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 14

~~Both scored~~4 of 14

~~Last meetings~~STJ 0–0 ABE · ABE 1–1 STJ · STJ 1–2 ABE · ABE 1–0 STJ

Form · last six in Premiership

ABERDEEN

LLLDWD0–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 1–1

ST JOHNSTONE

LLDWLD0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rangers	8	+6	19
2	Celtic	7	+10	18
3	Heart Of Midlothian	8	+11	16
4	Dundee	8	+3	13
5	Dundee Utd	8	−1	11
6	ST Mirren	8	−6	10
7	ST Johnstone	7	−1	8
8	Aberdeen	7	−1	8
9	Motherwell	7	−2	8
10	Hibernian	8	−4	7
11	Falkirk	8	−4	6
12	Kilmarnock	8	−11	5