Aberdeen v Falkirk prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AberdeenDrawFalkirk

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Aberdeen 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aberdeen are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aberdeen 44%, draw 26%, Falkirk 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Aberdeen v FalkirkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Aberdeen win44%

Draw26%

Falkirk win30%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePittodrie Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aberdeen

Falkirk

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Aberdeen	9	0	11
9	Falkirk	9	−3	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Scottish Premiership: Kelsy fires Rangers to emphatic win; Dundee United pip AberdeenThe Guardian · 24 Oct 17:52 · Dundee, Aberdeen

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aberdeen winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

44% The market48%

Us44%

~~Market~~48%

We make Aberdeen a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aberdeen v Falkirk~~1.48 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~7 v 9

~~The market · Aberdeen win~~48% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aberdeen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aberdeen win	44%	48%	−4
Draw	26%	26%	0
Falkirk win	30%	25%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Aberdeen or draw	70%	75%	−5
Aberdeen clean sheet	32%	–	–
Falkirk clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.4 8.3 4.8 1 10.6 12.2 7.0 2.7 2 7.8 8.9 5.1 3 3.9 4.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aberdeen down, Falkirk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aberdeen at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Falkirk away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Aberdeen, 1.15 for Falkirk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ABE 1–1 FAL · FAL 1–0 ABE · ABE 0–1 FAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 5 Sept

ABERDEEN

DWDLWL0–0 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–3

FALKIRK

DWDLWW1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Celtic	9	+18	24
2	Rangers	9	+6	20
3	Heart Of Midlothian	9	+5	16
4	Dundee	9	+3	14
5	ST Johnstone	9	0	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	−1	12
7	Aberdeen	9	0	11
8	ST Mirren	9	−8	10
9	Falkirk	9	−3	9
10	Motherwell	9	−5	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	−10	8
12	Hibernian	9	−5	7