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Stirling Albion v Kelty Hearts

Stirling Albion

2–1Full time

Kelty Hearts

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Forthbank Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Stirling Albion 2–1 Kelty Hearts STIRLING ALBION WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stirling Albion win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.554

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.575

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stirling Albion win at 40%.
3′KICK-OFF Stirling Albion v Kelty Hearts
11′6′ and it is 0–0: Kelty Hearts have scored. 0–0 · 39–25–36
13′⚽ GOAL · 6' Stirling Albion 0–1 Kelty Hearts
16′13′ and it is 0–1: R. Cole on the scoresheet for Kelty Hearts. 0–1 · 18–21–62
16′⚽ GOAL · 13' Stirling Albion 0–1 Kelty Hearts · R. Cole (assist J. Hislop)
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Stirling Albion win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Kelty Hearts win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Stirling Albion win 18%)
21′We said Stirling Albion at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–21–62
22′🟨 YELLOW · 16' I. Murray · Kelty Hearts
31′We said Stirling Albion at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
35′🟨 YELLOW · 27' G. Walker · Kelty Hearts
37′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 13–22–65
43′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Kelty Hearts
45′SECOND HALF Stirling Albion 0–1 Kelty Hearts
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Stirling Albion win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Stirling Albion 0–1 Kelty Hearts
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Stirling Albion 1–1 Kelty Hearts · R. Cole
68′⚽ GOAL · 66' Stirling Albion 1–1 Kelty Hearts · J. Allan
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Stirling Albion 1–1 Kelty Hearts
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Stirling Albion 2–1 Kelty Hearts · J. Allan
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Stirling Albion 2–1 Kelty Hearts · L. Hamilton (assist J. Mullin)
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Stirling Albion
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Kelty Hearts · On: K. Higginbotham · Off: L. Moore
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Stirling Albion · On: L. Fyfe · Off: R. McNab
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Kelty Hearts · On: T. Falconer · Off: J. Hislop
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Kelty Hearts
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Kelty Hearts · On: N. Lawson · Off: I. Murray
FTFULL TIME Stirling Albion 2–1 Kelty Hearts
FTStirling Albion 2–1 Kelty Hearts · Stirling Albion win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Stirling Albion win40%

Draw24%

Kelty Hearts win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Forthbank Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Stirling Albion

Formation not confirmed

27 C. Lyle

22 B. Hutchinson

4 L. Hamilton

23 K. Waugh

30 C. Crane

14 J. Mullin

10 K. Roberts

2 M. Thomas

25 D. Dobbie

26 Z. Cameron

5 R. McNab

Coach · Alan Maybury

Substitutes

1 · A. McNeil

11 · H. Wright

17 · L. Fyfe

16 · S. Denham

18 · C. Chuter

19 · E. Samuel

20 · R. Raine

28 · E. Smith

29 · J. Allan

Kelty Hearts

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Smith

15 A. Davidson

5 C. Flatman

25 G. Walker

3 C. Hannah

17 M. Falconer

23 L. Moore

14 J. Hislop

10 I. Murray

26 R. Cunningham

11 R. Cole

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · R. Adamson

9 · K. Higginbotham

16 · T. Falconer

18 · N. Lawson

22 · Z. Flatman

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Stirling Albion

Formation not confirmed

27 C. Lyle

22 B. Hutchinson

4 L. Hamilton

23 K. Waugh

30 C. Crane

14 J. Mullin

10 K. Roberts

2 M. Thomas

25 D. Dobbie

26 Z. Cameron

5 R. McNab

Coach · Alan Maybury

Substitutes

1 · A. McNeil

11 · H. Wright

17 · L. Fyfe

16 · S. Denham

18 · C. Chuter

19 · E. Samuel

20 · R. Raine

28 · E. Smith

29 · J. Allan

Kelty Hearts

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Smith

15 A. Davidson

5 C. Flatman

25 G. Walker

3 C. Hannah

17 M. Falconer

23 L. Moore

14 J. Hislop

10 I. Murray

26 R. Cunningham

11 R. Cole

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · R. Adamson

9 · K. Higginbotham

16 · T. Falconer

18 · N. Lawson

22 · Z. Flatman

Our number · stirling albion winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Stirling Albion a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stirling Albion win	40%	38%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Kelty Hearts win	36%	36%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	58%	+4
Both teams to score	63%	61%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	40%	37%	+3
Stirling Albion or draw	64%	64%	−1
Stirling Albion clean sheet	21%	–	–
Kelty Hearts clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.6 6.0 5.0 2.6 1 6.3 10.7 8.0 4.2 2 5.5 8.4 6.5 3.4 3 3.0 4.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stirling Albion down, Kelty Hearts across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 955 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stirling Albion at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kelty Hearts away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Stirling Albion, 1.56 for Kelty Hearts. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KEL 3–2 STI · KEL 1–1 STI · STI 0–3 KEL · KEL 1–1 STI

Form · last six in League Two

STIRLING ALBION

DLLLDW2–2 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 3–7 · 1–1 · 1–0

KELTY HEARTS

WLWLLW3–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stranraer	9	+9	17
2	Clyde	9	+5	17
3	Edinburgh City	9	+4	15
4	Elgin City	9	+9	14
5	Spartans	9	+2	12
6	Kelty Hearts	9	−5	12
7	Dumbarton	9	−5	12
8	Forfar Athletic	9	−6	11
9	Annan Athletic	9	−2	9
10	Stirling Albion	9	−11	8