Stirling Albion v Forfar Athletic prediction · League Two

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Stirling AlbionDrawForfar Athletic

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Stirling Albion 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stirling Albion are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stirling Albion 39%, draw 27%, Forfar Athletic 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Stirling Albion v Forfar AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Stirling Albion win39%

Draw27%

Forfar Athletic win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueForthbank Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stirling Albion

Forfar Athletic

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Stirling Albion	11	−10	12
9	Forfar Athletic	11	−8	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stirling albion winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market48%

Us39%

~~Market~~48%

We make Stirling Albion a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stirling Albion v Forfar Athletic~~1.39 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~7 v 9

~~The market · Stirling Albion win~~48% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stirling Albion win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stirling Albion win	39%	48%	−9
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Forfar Athletic win	34%	27%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
Stirling Albion or draw	66%	73%	−7
Stirling Albion clean sheet	28%	–	–
Forfar Athletic clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.7 8.3 5.7 2.4 1 9.1 12.8 7.8 3.3 2 6.7 8.5 5.4 2.3 3 3.1 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stirling Albion down, Forfar Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 965 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stirling Albion at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Forfar Athletic away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Stirling Albion, 1.28 for Forfar Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FOR 3–0 STI · STI 0–3 FOR · FOR 0–1 STI · STI 0–4 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

STIRLING ALBION

LLDWWD0–2 · 3–7 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

FORFAR ATHLETIC

LLWLLL0–3 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stranraer	11	+16	23
2	Clyde	11	+9	23
3	Elgin City	11	+10	18
4	Spartans	11	+2	15
5	Kelty Hearts	11	−5	15
6	Dumbarton	11	−6	13
7	Stirling Albion	11	−10	12
8	Edinburgh City	11	+2	11
9	Forfar Athletic	11	−8	11
10	Annan Athletic	11	−10	9