Spartans v Stranraer prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Spartans 0–2 Stranraer SPARTANS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartans win~~47%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.811

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.689

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartans win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Spartans 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–27
1′KICK-OFF Spartans v Stranraer
7′Little has changed for our model: Spartans 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
12′A goal for Stranraer on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–23–55
12′We said Spartans at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–23–55
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Spartans 0–1 Stranraer
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Spartans win: 47% at kick-off, 21% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Stranraer win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Spartans win 21%)
20′We said Spartans at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Spartans win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 17–25–59
38′We said Spartans at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Stranraer
45′HALF-TIME Spartans 0–1 Stranraer
45′SECOND HALF Spartans 0–1 Stranraer
54′We said Spartans at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
55′Stranraer score on 55′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Spartans 0–2 Stranraer
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Spartans win: 47% at kick-off, 2% now
56′We said Spartans at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–92
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Spartans
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Spartans · On: J. Dishington · Off: B. Walls
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Spartans · On: A. Thomson · Off: B. Whyte
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Stranraer · On: J. Stuart · Off: Z. Bruce
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Spartans
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stranraer · On: J. Dolan · Off: A. Traynor
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Spartans
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Stranraer · On: D. Plank · Off: A. Healy
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Stranraer
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Stranraer
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Spartans
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Spartans · On: B. Dall · Off: S. Welsh
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Stranraer · On: D. Clelland · Off: S. Mason
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Stranraer · On: L. Gillie · Off: B. Coll
FTFULL TIME Spartans 0–2 Stranraer
FTSpartans 0–2 Stranraer · Spartans win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartans are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartans 47%, draw 26%, Stranraer 27%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Spartans v StranraerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spartans win47%

Draw26%

Stranraer win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAinslie Park

Line-ups

Spartans

Stranraer

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartans

Stranraer

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Spartans

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Carswell

2 M. Mudie

15 A. Sonkur

5 J. Tapping

33 B. Whyte

23 B. Heal

18 B. Walls

4 S. Welsh

29 M. Stowe

14 R. Dinanga

9 M. McNulty

Coach · Douglas Samuel

Substitutes

21 · P. Martin

6 · B. Dall

7 · J. Dishington

10 · M. Ross

12 · A. Thomson

17 · E. Taylor

20 · Z. McAllister

Stranraer

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Currie

2 E. Dunne

4 M. McLuckie

5 K. Nair

22 B. Coll

8 A. Quigg

14 Z. Bruce

12 A. Traynor

11 A. Healy

24 S. Mason

16 L. Dobbie

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · E. Henderson

6 · J. Stuart

7 · J. Dolan

9 · R. Foster

10 · D. Plank

20 · C. Cameron

21 · L. Gillie

77 · D. Clelland

Our number · spartans winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market42%

Us47%

~~Market~~42%

We make Spartans a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartans v Stranraer~~1.57 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 20~~4 v 1

~~The market · Spartans win~~42% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spartans win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartans win	47%	42%	+5
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Stranraer win	27%	33%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	60%	−9
Both teams to score	54%	62%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Spartans or draw	73%	67%	+6
Spartans clean sheet	32%	–	–
Stranraer clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.2 7.2 4.4 1 10.0 12.3 6.7 2.6 2 8.1 9.2 5.3 2.0 3 4.3 4.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartans down, Stranraer across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 960 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartans at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Stranraer away: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Spartans, 1.15 for Stranraer. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STR 1–0 SPA · SPA 1–2 STR · STR 2–1 SPA · SPA 0–4 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 29 Aug

SPARTANS

DWWLLW3–3 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–1

STRANRAER

WWWWDW2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stranraer	10	+14	20
2	Clyde	10	+6	20
3	Elgin City	10	+10	17
4	Spartans	10	+4	15
5	Kelty Hearts	10	−6	12
6	Dumbarton	10	−6	12
7	Forfar Athletic	10	−7	11
8	Stirling Albion	10	−10	11
9	Edinburgh City	10	+2	10
10	Annan Athletic	10	−7	9