Kelty Hearts v Forfar Athletic prediction · League Two

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Kelty Hearts 2–1 Forfar Athletic KELTY HEARTS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kelty Hearts win~~43%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.496

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.446

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kelty Hearts win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kelty Hearts was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Kelty Hearts v Forfar Athletic
2′Kelty Hearts find the net on 1′. 0–0 · 42–27–31
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Kelty Hearts 1–0 Forfar Athletic
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Kelty Hearts win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
3′GOAL DISALLOWED · 3' Kelty Hearts
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Kelty Hearts win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
4′We published Kelty Hearts at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–18–12
4′Kelty Hearts ahead on 2′ through Z. Flatman. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–18–12
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Kelty Hearts 1–0 Forfar Athletic
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Kelty Hearts win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
8′Kelty Hearts ahead on 2′ through Z. Flatman. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–18–12
9′We published Kelty Hearts at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–18–12
29′S. Shepherd scores for Forfar Athletic on 29′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 38–33–29
29′Much as we predicted: Kelty Hearts was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 1–1 · 38–33–29
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Kelty Hearts 1–1 Forfar Athletic · S. Shepherd
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Kelty Hearts win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
32′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Kelty Hearts
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Kelty Hearts
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Kelty Hearts win 34%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Kelty Hearts
45′HALF-TIME Kelty Hearts 1–1 Forfar Athletic
45′SECOND HALF Kelty Hearts 1–1 Forfar Athletic
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Kelty Hearts win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
53′We said Kelty Hearts at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–45–24
53′We published Kelty Hearts at 43%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–19–5
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kelty Hearts 2–1 Forfar Athletic
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Kelty Hearts win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Kelty Hearts win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
54′Kelty Hearts find the net on 54′. 1–1 · 31–45–24
54′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 76–19–5
54′GOAL DISALLOWED · 54' Kelty Hearts
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Kelty Hearts win: 43% at kick-off, 31% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Kelty Hearts win 31%)
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Kelty Hearts 2–1 Forfar Athletic · I. Murray
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Kelty Hearts win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Kelty Hearts win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Kelty Hearts
64′We published Kelty Hearts at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Kelty Hearts win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
74′We published Kelty Hearts at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kelty Hearts · On: J. Brydon · Off: Z. Flatman
81′We published Kelty Hearts at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Kelty Hearts win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
87′We published Kelty Hearts at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Kelty Hearts
90′A red card for Kelty Hearts on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 2–1. We called Kelty Hearts at 43% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Kelty Hearts
FTFULL TIME Kelty Hearts 2–1 Forfar Athletic
FTKelty Hearts 2–1 Forfar Athletic · Kelty Hearts win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kelty Hearts are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kelty Hearts 43%, draw 27%, Forfar Athletic 31%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Kelty Hearts v Forfar AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kelty Hearts win43%

Draw27%

Forfar Athletic win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueNew Central Park

Line-ups

Kelty Hearts

Forfar Athletic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kelty Hearts

Forfar Athletic

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Kelty Hearts	10	−6	12
7	Forfar Athletic	10	−7	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kelty Hearts

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Smith

25 G. Walker

5 C. Flatman

22 Z. Flatman

3 C. Hannah

17 M. Falconer

26 R. Cunningham

14 J. Hislop

10 I. Murray

23 L. Moore

9 K. Higginbotham

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · R. Adamson

35 · J. Brydon

16 · T. Falconer

6 · A. Ferguson

18 · N. Lawson

7 · F. Moffett

29 · R. Shanley

Forfar Athletic

Formation not confirmed

31 T. Simpson

18 C. Wilson

4 J. Wyllie

5 M. Allan

26 M. Syme

19 E. Crombie

14 A. Mailer

24 R. Hickey

20 A. Haddow

9 S. Shepherd

22 L. Perrie

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · B. Alston

16 · A. Arnott

2 · A. Lynas

7 · R. MacLean

10 · M. Rennie

8 · C. Slater

21 · N. Stafford

25 · M. Whatley

Our number · kelty hearts winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market45%

Us43%

~~Market~~45%

We make Kelty Hearts a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kelty Hearts v Forfar Athletic~~1.44 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~5 v 7

~~The market · Kelty Hearts win~~45% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kelty Hearts win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kelty Hearts win	43%	45%	−2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Forfar Athletic win	31%	27%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	52%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	75%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
Kelty Hearts or draw	69%	73%	−4
Kelty Hearts clean sheet	31%	–	–
Forfar Athletic clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.9 8.1 5.1 2.0 1 10.0 12.6 7.2 2.9 2 7.5 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.6 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kelty Hearts down, Forfar Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 960 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kelty Hearts at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Forfar Athletic away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Kelty Hearts, 1.19 for Forfar Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FOR 1–0 KEL · FOR 1–2 KEL · KEL 1–1 FOR · FOR 1–0 KEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 28 Aug

KELTY HEARTS

LWLLWL0–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–2

FORFAR ATHLETIC

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stranraer	10	+14	20
2	Clyde	10	+6	20
3	Elgin City	10	+10	17
4	Spartans	10	+4	15
5	Kelty Hearts	10	−6	12
6	Dumbarton	10	−6	12
7	Forfar Athletic	10	−7	11
8	Stirling Albion	10	−10	11
9	Edinburgh City	10	+2	10
10	Annan Athletic	10	−7	9