Kelty Hearts v Elgin City prediction · League Two

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kelty HeartsDrawElgin City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kelty Hearts 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kelty Hearts are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kelty Hearts 41%, draw 25%, Elgin City 34%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Kelty Hearts v Elgin CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kelty Hearts win41%

Draw25%

Elgin City win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueNew Central Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kelty Hearts

Elgin City

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish FA Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Elgin City	11	+10	18
5	Kelty Hearts	11	−5	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kelty hearts winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market30%

Us41%

~~Market~~30%

We make Kelty Hearts a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kelty Hearts v Elgin City~~1.65 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~5 v 3

~~The market · Kelty Hearts win~~30% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kelty Hearts win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kelty Hearts win	41%	30%	+11
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Elgin City win	34%	45%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	60%	58%	+2
Both teams to score	62%	61%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	0
Kelty Hearts or draw	66%	55%	+11
Kelty Hearts clean sheet	23%	–	–
Elgin City clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.1 6.0 4.8 2.4 1 6.8 11.1 7.7 3.8 2 6.0 8.6 6.3 3.1 3 3.3 4.8 3.5 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kelty Hearts down, Elgin City across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 965 League Two matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.11 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kelty Hearts at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Elgin City away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Kelty Hearts, 1.48 for Elgin City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.11

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ELG 4–1 KEL · ELG 3–2 KEL · KEL 3–1 ELG · ELG 1–1 KEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 5 Sept

KELTY HEARTS

WLLWLW2–1 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

ELGIN CITY

LLLWWD1–2 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 6–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stranraer	11	+16	23
2	Clyde	11	+9	23
3	Elgin City	11	+10	18
4	Spartans	11	+2	15
5	Kelty Hearts	11	−5	15
6	Dumbarton	11	−6	13
7	Stirling Albion	11	−10	12
8	Edinburgh City	11	+2	11
9	Forfar Athletic	11	−8	11
10	Annan Athletic	11	−10	9