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Forfar Athletic v Elgin City

Forfar Athletic

1–2Full time

Elgin City

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Station Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Forfar Athletic 1–2 Elgin City FORFAR ATHLETIC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Forfar Athletic win~~40%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.686

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.438

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Forfar Athletic win at 40%.
2′KICK-OFF Forfar Athletic v Elgin City
10′A goal for Elgin City on 5′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 40–28–33
13′⚽ GOAL · 5' Forfar Athletic 0–1 Elgin City · K. Hester (assist J. Murray)
15′We said Forfar Athletic at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–22–61
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Forfar Athletic win: 40% at kick-off, 16% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Elgin City win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Forfar Athletic win 16%)
29′We said Forfar Athletic at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–23–63
31′We said Forfar Athletic at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–23–64
31′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Forfar Athletic
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 12–23–65
38′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Elgin City
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Forfar Athletic win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
45′SECOND HALF Forfar Athletic 0–1 Elgin City
49′We said Forfar Athletic at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–69
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' M. Gallagher · Elgin City
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Forfar Athletic
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Forfar Athletic · On: C. Wilson · Off: R. Hickey
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Forfar Athletic · On: A. Haddow · Off: A. Arnott
71′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Elgin City · On: C. Brown · Off: K. Hester
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Forfar Athletic · On: A. Haddow · Off: B. Alston Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Forfar Athletic · On: A. Brown · Off: S. Shepherd
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Forfar Athletic · On: M. Syme · Off: M. Lemon
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Forfar Athletic · On: A. Brown · Off: S. Shepherd
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Forfar Athletic · On: M. Syme · Off: M. Lemon
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' Forfar Athletic 0–1 Elgin City
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Forfar Athletic 1–1 Elgin City · K. Hester
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Forfar Athletic 1–2 Elgin City · K. Hester
85′⚽ GOAL · 83' Forfar Athletic 1–2 Elgin City
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Forfar Athletic 1–2 Elgin City
FTFULL TIME Forfar Athletic 1–2 Elgin City
FTForfar Athletic 1–2 Elgin City · Forfar Athletic win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Forfar Athletic win40%

Draw27%

Elgin City win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Station Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Forfar Athletic

Formation not confirmed

21 N. Stafford

14 A. Mailer

4 J. Wyllie

5 M. Allan

15 M. Lemon

16 A. Arnott

19 E. Crombie

24 R. Hickey

12 B. Alston

9 S. Shepherd

22 L. Perrie

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · T. Simpson

2 · A. Lynas

11 · A. Brown

20 · A. Haddow

26 · M. Syme

25 · M. Whatley

18 · C. Wilson

7 · R. MacLean

10 · M. Rennie

Elgin City

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Ritchie

5 K. Girvan

2 M. Neill

6 J. Murray

23 M. Grant

77 L. Scullion

10 M. Gallagher

12 O. Cairns

7 R. Dingwall

9 K. Hester

22 J. MacIver

Coach · –

Substitutes

24 · L. Mackay

18 · A. Cummings

27 · J. Morrison

40 · D. McHardy

19 · C. Parmenter

14 · M. Machado

25 · C. Brown

11 · O. Colloty

17 · K. Willox

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Forfar Athletic

Formation not confirmed

21 N. Stafford

14 A. Mailer

4 J. Wyllie

5 M. Allan

15 M. Lemon

16 A. Arnott

19 E. Crombie

24 R. Hickey

12 B. Alston

9 S. Shepherd

22 L. Perrie

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · T. Simpson

2 · A. Lynas

11 · A. Brown

20 · A. Haddow

26 · M. Syme

25 · M. Whatley

18 · C. Wilson

7 · R. MacLean

10 · M. Rennie

Elgin City

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Ritchie

5 K. Girvan

2 M. Neill

6 J. Murray

23 M. Grant

77 L. Scullion

10 M. Gallagher

12 O. Cairns

7 R. Dingwall

9 K. Hester

22 J. MacIver

Coach · –

Substitutes

24 · L. Mackay

18 · A. Cummings

27 · J. Morrison

40 · D. McHardy

19 · C. Parmenter

14 · M. Machado

25 · C. Brown

11 · O. Colloty

17 · K. Willox

Our number · forfar athletic winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market28%

Us40%

~~Market~~28%

We make Forfar Athletic a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · forfar athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 27% to 28% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Forfar Athletic win	40%	28%	+12
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Elgin City win	33%	46%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	33%	−6
Forfar Athletic or draw	67%	54%	+13
Forfar Athletic clean sheet	29%	–	–
Elgin City clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.8 8.4 5.5 2.3 1 9.5 12.8 7.6 3.2 2 7.0 8.6 5.3 2.2 3 3.3 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Forfar Athletic down, Elgin City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 955 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

21 previous meetings, 2.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 21 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Forfar Athletic at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Elgin City away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Forfar Athletic, 1.24 for Elgin City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

21 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 21

~~Both scored~~12 of 21

~~Last meetings~~ELG 1–1 FOR · FOR 2–1 ELG · ELG 2–0 FOR · FOR 4–2 ELG

Form · last six in League Two

FORFAR ATHLETIC

LDLLWL0–3 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–2

ELGIN CITY

DWLLLW3–3 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 6–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stranraer	9	+9	17
2	Clyde	9	+5	17
3	Edinburgh City	9	+4	15
4	Elgin City	9	+9	14
5	Spartans	9	+2	12
6	Kelty Hearts	9	−5	12
7	Dumbarton	9	−5	12
8	Forfar Athletic	9	−6	11
9	Annan Athletic	9	−2	9
10	Stirling Albion	9	−11	8