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Elgin City v Edinburgh City

Elgin City
0–0Full time
Edinburgh City

League Two · SAT 17 OCT · Borough Briggs

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Elgin City 0–0 Edinburgh City ELGIN CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Elgin City win51%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.928
The market’s Brier score0.859

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Elgin City win at 51%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Elgin City 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Elgin City v Edinburgh City
  4. 7′Little has changed for our model: Elgin City 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–27
  5. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Elgin City
  6. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Edinburgh City
  7. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Elgin City win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Elgin City 0–0 Edinburgh City
  9. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Elgin City win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Draw 34%)
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Elgin City 0–0 Edinburgh City
  11. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Edinburgh City · On: E. Glasgow · Off: L. Gardiner
  12. 50′We said Elgin City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–37–24
  13. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Edinburgh City
  14. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 37–40–23
  15. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Elgin City win 36%)
  16. 60′We said Elgin City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–22
  17. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Elgin City win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
  18. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Elgin City · On: O. Colloty · Off: L. Scullion
  19. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Elgin City · On: O. Cairns · Off: D. McHardy
  20. 68′We said Elgin City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
  21. 74′We said Elgin City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
  22. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Elgin City
  23. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Elgin City win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
  24. 79′We said Elgin City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–69–13
  25. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Edinburgh City · On: K. Foster · Off: J. Leitch
  26. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Elgin City
  27. 82′We said Elgin City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
  28. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Elgin City win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
  29. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Edinburgh City · On: C. Bunker · Off: J. Jarvis
  30. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Elgin City · On: L. Mackay · Off: R. Dingwall
  31. 87′We said Elgin City at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
  32. 90′0–0 at the end. Our 51% on Elgin City misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  33. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Elgin City · On: K. Willox · Off: M. Grant
  34. FTFULL TIME Elgin City 0–0 Edinburgh City
  35. FTElgin City 0–0 Edinburgh City · Elgin City win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elgin City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Elgin City 51%, draw 23%, Edinburgh City 27%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Elgin City v Edinburgh CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Elgin City win51%
Draw23%
Edinburgh City win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBorough Briggs

Line-ups

Elgin City

Edinburgh City

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Elgin City

Edinburgh City

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Elgin City10+1017
9Edinburgh City10+210

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Elgin City

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Ritchie

5 K. Girvan

2 M. Neill

6 J. Murray

23 M. Grant

10 M. Gallagher

77 L. Scullion

40 D. McHardy

7 R. Dingwall

9 K. Hester

22 J. MacIver

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · J. Morrison

11 · O. Colloty

12 · O. Cairns

15 · L. Jamieson

17 · K. Willox

18 · A. Cummings

19 · J. Camara

24 · L. Mackay

28 · C. Mckay

Edinburgh City

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Dowie

5 L. Gardiner

23 J. McGregor

21 F. Rowe

2 C. McGinn

10 J. Jarvis

11 I. Lawson

6 J. Leitch

18 M. Aiken

7 L. Walker

20 T. North

Coach · Michael McIndoe

Substitutes

1 · M. Weir

4 · C. Pitt

17 · C. Bunker

24 · K. Foster

25 · E. Glasgow

27 · C. Law

Our number · elgin city winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
51% The market47%
Us51%
Market47%

We make Elgin City a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Elgin City v Edinburgh City1.97 – 1.39
Form · last six in League Two this season · since 28 AugW3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 17 v 103 v 9
The market · Elgin City win47% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 14:14
Our probability · Elgin City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Elgin City win51%47%+4
Draw23%25%−2
Edinburgh City win27%28%−1
Over 2.5 goals65%61%+4
Both teams to score64%62%+2
Over 1.5 goals85%80%+5
Over 3.5 goals43%40%+3
Elgin City or draw73%72%+1
Elgin City clean sheet25%––
Edinburgh City clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%
0123450 4.0 4.6 3.4 1 6.6 9.9 6.6 3.1 2 6.8 9.2 6.4 3.0 3 4.4 6.0 4.2 4 2.2 3.0 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Elgin City down, Edinburgh City across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsEDI 0–5 ELG · EDI 0–3 ELG · ELG 3–0 EDI · EDI 1–3 ELG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League Two this season · since 28 Aug

ELGIN CITY

WLLLWW4–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 6–2 · 2–1

EDINBURGH CITY

DLWWDL1–1 · 2–3 · 7–3 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Stranraer10+1420
2Clyde10+620
3Elgin City10+1017
4Spartans10+415
5Kelty Hearts10−612
6Dumbarton10−612
7Forfar Athletic10−711
8Stirling Albion10−1011
9Edinburgh City10+210
10Annan Athletic10−79

The competition's standings before kick-off.