Home › Football › League Two › Edinburgh City v Spartans

Edinburgh City v Spartans

Edinburgh City

1–3Full time

Spartans

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Meadowbank Sports Centre

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Edinburgh City 1–3 Spartans SPARTANS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartans win~~41%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.527

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.569

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartans win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Edinburgh City v Spartans
9′Much as we predicted: Spartans was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 34–25–41
15′⚽ GOAL · 12' Edinburgh City 0–0 Spartans
19′Edinburgh City ahead on 12′ through C. McGinn. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–22–18
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Edinburgh City 1–0 Spartans · C. McGinn
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Spartans win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Edinburgh City win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Spartans win 18%)
23′We said Spartans at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 61–22–17
29′SUBSTITUTION · 25' Edinburgh City · On: T. North · Off: J. Grigor
35′We said Spartans at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
35′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Spartans
39′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 64–23–13
45′SECOND HALF Edinburgh City 1–1 Spartans
47′⚽ GOAL · 41' Edinburgh City 1–1 Spartans
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Edinburgh City 1–2 Spartans · M. Mudie
48′A goal for Spartans on 41′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–37–34
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Spartans win: 41% at kick-off, 34% now
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Spartans
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Edinburgh City
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Edinburgh City 1–3 Spartans
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Edinburgh City · On: E. Glasgow · Off: R. Leitch
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Spartans · On: J. Dishington · Off: R. Dinanga
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Spartans · On: J. Dishington · Off: R. Dinanga
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Spartans · On: Z. McAllister · Off: B. Walls
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Spartans
FTFULL TIME Edinburgh City 1–3 Spartans
FTEdinburgh City 1–3 Spartans · Spartans win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Edinburgh City win35%

Draw24%

Spartans win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Meadowbank Sports Centre

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Edinburgh City

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Weir

8 R. Leitch

5 J. Grigor

21 F. Rowe

2 C. McGinn

10 J. Jarvis

6 J. Leitch

11 I. Lawson

18 M. Aiken

7 L. Walker

24 K. Foster

Coach · Michael McIndoe

Substitutes

4 · C. Pitt

16 · G. Allen

17 · C. Bunker

20 · T. North

22 · S. Dowie

25 · E. Glasgow

27 · L. Gardiner

Spartans

Formation not confirmed

21 P. Martin

2 M. Mudie

15 A. Sonkur

5 J. Tapping

19 E. Drysdale

23 B. Heal

4 S. Welsh

18 B. Walls

29 M. Stowe

14 R. Dinanga

9 M. McNulty

Coach · Douglas Samuel

Substitutes

1 · B. Carswell

6 · B. Dall

7 · J. Dishington

10 · M. Ross

12 · A. Thomson

16 · O. Fitzsimmons

17 · A. Del Giacco

20 · Z. McAllister

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Edinburgh City

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Weir

8 R. Leitch

5 J. Grigor

21 F. Rowe

2 C. McGinn

10 J. Jarvis

6 J. Leitch

11 I. Lawson

18 M. Aiken

7 L. Walker

24 K. Foster

Coach · Michael McIndoe

Substitutes

4 · C. Pitt

16 · G. Allen

17 · C. Bunker

20 · T. North

22 · S. Dowie

25 · E. Glasgow

27 · L. Gardiner

Spartans

Formation not confirmed

21 P. Martin

2 M. Mudie

15 A. Sonkur

5 J. Tapping

19 E. Drysdale

23 B. Heal

4 S. Welsh

18 B. Walls

29 M. Stowe

14 R. Dinanga

9 M. McNulty

Coach · Douglas Samuel

Substitutes

1 · B. Carswell

6 · B. Dall

7 · J. Dishington

10 · M. Ross

12 · A. Thomson

16 · O. Fitzsimmons

17 · A. Del Giacco

20 · Z. McAllister

Our number · spartans winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market39%

Us41%

~~Market~~39%

We make Spartans a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · spartans win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Edinburgh City win	35%	34%	0
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Spartans win	41%	39%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	61%	55%	+6
Both teams to score	63%	60%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	77%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	39%	35%	+4
Edinburgh City or draw	59%	61%	−2
Edinburgh City clean sheet	19%	–	–
Spartans clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 4.8 6.6 5.8 3.2 1 6.0 10.9 8.6 4.8 2.0 2 4.8 7.9 6.5 3.6 3 2.4 4.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Edinburgh City down, Spartans across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 955 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Edinburgh City at home: 2.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Spartans away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Edinburgh City, 1.66 for Spartans. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SPA 2–2 EDI · EDI 0–3 SPA · SPA 0–0 EDI · EDI 1–3 SPA

Form · last six in League Two

EDINBURGH CITY

WDLWWD1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 7–3 · 3–1 · 0–0

SPARTANS

DDWWLL3–3 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stranraer	9	+9	17
2	Clyde	9	+5	17
3	Edinburgh City	9	+4	15
4	Elgin City	9	+9	14
5	Spartans	9	+2	12
6	Kelty Hearts	9	−5	12
7	Dumbarton	9	−5	12
8	Forfar Athletic	9	−6	11
9	Annan Athletic	9	−2	9
10	Stirling Albion	9	−11	8